Ignore The ABC/Post Poll: Time Says There's Trouble In The GOP Base
ABC News and the Washington Post released their final poll this morning before the election and as Peter said it shows the generic ballot question down to only a six-point advantage for the Democrats among likely voters. It also shows Bush with a 43% approval rating, but there is a catch with these results: unlike all other pollsters except Gallup of course, ABC News/WaPo used a sample that had more Republicans in it than Democrats.
So even after the Post salted the likely voter sample with more Republicans than is probably warranted, their poll still showed the Democrats with a six-point advantage Tuesday. Presumably the pollsters assume that the GOP’s voter turnout effort will still overwhelm the Democrats and that independent voters will split between the two parties, a questionable assumption given other polls that show independents going for the Democrats and a comparative lack of enthusiasm among the GOP base, as reported today in the Time poll.
Look, at this point I believe that Democrats will take the House and may pick up four seats in the Senate. Other polls out today (with large MOEs by the way) show that GOP incumbents Conrad Burns and Lincoln Chafee are rebounding, so our chances of taking the Senate are clouded. But to assume that independents will split their vote Tuesday equally and that the GOP will obliterate the Democratic advantage to the tune of 6-7 points this year in a year of concern about the cultist base is a little over the top, even for the Post and ABC News.