Monday :: Nov 6, 2006

Gallup Says 35-Seat Democratic House Pickup Is "Likely"


by Steve

"There are no signs that the wave is ebbing. The reality is, the list of vulnerable Republican seats continues to grow."
--Amy Walter, senior editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report today

As we wind down to this election, I want to hit several things. First, keep an eye out for our “predictions” post later today, where you will get a chance to predict what you think will happen in the House and Senate tomorrow.

Second, please read Eriposte’s great post below on the lengths the GOP is taking to suppress Democratic turnout through push-poll calls and robo-calls. When they can’t win on the issues or their tired messages on terror and taxes, the GOP will do whatever it can through these deceitful calls and through voter suppression and fraud to steal elections.

Lastly, there have been a slew of final polls that show the generic ballot race tightening. Many pollsters roll out their likely voter models and projections late in the cycle after they have seen the lay of the land and factored in turnout patterns from recent elections. If a pollster still shows a Democratic generic ballot advantage even after they have factored in the likely GOP advantages, this is a good thing. So do not be depressed at seeing a tightening in the generic ballot numbers as we head to tomorrow, because we may be talking about apples and oranges here since earlier polls did not take into account likely voter models. And don’t fall for the media’s GOP band wagoning effect, where they try and help the GOP by talking about the race tightening.

To that end, the last CNN poll using their likely voter model shows the Democrats still with a large 20-point advantage over the GOP, an increase from last month. As a comparison, even Gallup’s final poll of likely voters, after factoring in the GOP advantages, gives Democrats a 7-point advantage in the generic ballot tomorrow, and that was from using a sample made up of 35% Republicans, 37% Democrats, and 27% independents. Gallup is now actually predicting a 35-seat pickup in the House as the most likely number tomorrow for the Democrats.

As for Senate races, Gallup released its final polls in key races, but as you analyze the findings, take a look at the likely voter models they used in each state to see if you agree with their assessment of the party identification of each state’s likely voters tomorrow.

Montana

Gallup says that Jon Tester now has a 9-point lead amongst likely voters over Conrad Burns (50%-41%), using a likely voter model that is:

Republican 32%
Independent 36%
Democrat 31%

Missouri

Gallup says that Claire McCaskill now has a four-point lead over Jim Talent among likely voters, 49%-45%, using a likely voter model that is:

Republican 34%
Independent 30%
Democrat 35%

New Jersey

Gallup says that Democratic incumbent Robert Menendez now has a 10-point lead, 50%-40%, over Tom Kean, Jr., using a likely voter model that is:

Republican 31%
Independent 33%
Democrat 35%

Rhode Island

Gallup says that GOP incumbent Lincoln Chafee has closed the gap with Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse to only three points, 48%-45%, using a likely voter model with the following staggering numbers:

Republican 16%
Independent 51%
Democrat 31%

Virginia

Gallup now says that GOP incumbent George Allen has a 49%-46% lead over Jim Webb using a likely voter model that is:

Republican 36%
Independent 30%
Democrat 32%

Update: Survey USA has a newer poll out today that shows Webb pulling away from Allen.

Tennessee

Gallup says that Bob Corker leads Harold Ford Jr. by 49%-46% using a likely voter model that is:

Republican 39%
Independent 26%
Democrat 34%

If Gallup is correct, Democrats will pick up Montana, hold New Jersey, and scratch out small wins in Missouri and Rhode Island to go along with probable victories in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Assuming that Democrats hold Maryland as well, this would represent a Democratic pickup of five seats, not counting what may happen in Tennessee and Virginia, and possibly Arizona.

A net five-seat pickup tomorrow, along with Bernie Sanders in Vermont gives the Democrats 50 votes assuming that Joe Lieberman sticks with the caucus. And if Webb pulls it out over Allen in Virginia, as Survey USA is now predicting, then the Dems take over the Senate as well.

Steve :: 9:35 AM :: Comments (4) :: Digg It!