Laura Rozen links an interesting piece from Michael May about why Washington is so bad at predicting the future. He says that we could improve results by simply using a "null hypothesis" methodology to remove the inherent human biases where we persist in looking at the world through our own perspective. Nice advice, but I wonder if Cheney even knows what null hypothesis means. Mays is very good at pointing out how the null hypothesis model could reduce the biases we bring to the table, but I'm not sure what his advice does to prevent the willful delusion of the true believers.
What's going on in the neighborhood?