Thursday :: Apr 12, 2007

Will Hillary Be The Front-Runner By 2008?

by Steve

Los Angeles Times graphic

This post was originally going to deal with John McCain’s declining fortunes: about how he is cutting back staff, and now trails a television actor in the latest national poll. And I planned to also reference Joe Biden’s rebuttal of McCain’s recent happy talk in today’s Post, and mention that McCain freely admits that he is hoping for good news in Iraq without any sense of certainty that it will arrive.

And to cap it off, I was going to mention that Adam Nagourney and John Broder in the NYT today point out what we have been saying for awhile: the GOP candidates have no choice but to support the surge and the war, because the GOP base is the only group left in this country that still supports the war. But any suggestion that this still may be a winning strategy if the surge works is undercut by developments like today’s bombings in Baghdad. And as Richard Wolffe and Holly Bailey note in Newsweek, McCain’s real problem is that he is tethered to Bush at a time when the polls show that even Republicans want the exact opposite in their next president.

But the more I thought about it and looked closer at that LAT poll, it struck me that there is a bigger possibility at play here. Aside from McCain’s troubles, and that of all the GOP candidates because of their support for the war, how many of you think that Hillary will even be the leading Democratic candidate by the end of 2007? As the latest Democracy Corps analysis shows, the war is the gateway issue for Democratic primary voters before they consider anything else. And then there is this:

On the Democratic side, Democrats above all else are looking for a candidate who will rise above partisanship and unify the country, as well as for a candidate who is strong and will stand up for the public good.

This isn’t a description easily that applies to Hillary Clinton. Count me as one of those who now thinks she won’t be the Democratic front-runner by the end of 2007.

Steve :: 3:51 PM :: Comments (8) :: Digg It!