Monday :: Aug 6, 2007

2008 in Perspective


by eriposte

Charlie Cook's latest at The National Journal is worth a look. He talks about the state of the 2008 election race as well as trends in voter affiliation and what that might imply in terms of who has the edge in 2008.

Here is a tabular summary of the Gallup results that Cook discusses (% affiliation refers to the % of respondents in Gallup surveys who stated a particular affiliation).

Election Year
%D affiliation
%R affiliation
Dem advantage (%)
%D affiliation incl. leaners
%R affiliation incl. leaners
Dem advantage (%)
Winner of election
1992
34.3
29.1
+5.2
50.2
40.7
+9.5
Dem
(Clinton)
2000
34.0
30.4
+3.6
46.6
42.4
+4.2
Dem
(Gore)
2004
34.3
33.5
+0.8
47.8
45.4
+2.4
Rep
(Bush)
2006
34.2
30.4
+3.8
50.4
40.2
+10.2
Dem
(Congress)
2007
(avg to-date)
33.1
28.1
+5.0
51.3
39.8
+11.5
-

In short, independents have been leaning more and more towards Democrats and there has been a noticeable drop-off in Republican affiliation - because of the complete radicalization and criminalization of the Republican party over the past several years.

As for the general election polling trends between the named Democrats and Republicans, those trends have also shifted of late in favor of Democrats - see here.

eriposte :: 8:16 PM :: Comments (18) :: Digg It!