Tuesday :: Jan 1, 2008

Will Obama win by not being a Democrat?

by Turkana

Marc Ambinder, of The Atlantic, got an email from the Clinton campaign:

The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race.

As reported in my previous David Yepsen post, the Register assumes much higher participation in the Democratic caucuses by people who are not Democrats.

When you look at Democrats who last time were 80% of the turnout, Hillary wins with that group by 6%, 33 to 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards. And as David Yepsen points out, had their pollsters used the 2004 turnout model, Hillary would lead by 29 to 27, figures in line with the other polls.

Which tells us a few important things:

1) If the Register is wrong about turnout, Hillary leads their poll.

2) If they are right about turnout, my previous post remains true- the result of the caucus will be a farce.

3) If they are right about turnout, and Obama wins, it will underscore that he is moving the Party in the wrong direction- away from the base, away from unions, away from core Democratic values! Everyone from digby, to Markos, to Ezra Klein, to Matthew Yglesias, to Big Tent Democrat, to Atrios has something to say about it. Bottom line: Obama may be running a smart horse-race strategy; but anyone who cares about the direction of the Democratic Party ought to be worried.

Turkana :: 11:23 AM :: Comments (8) :: Digg It!