Saturday :: Jan 19, 2008

Hillary wins, Edwards loses

by Turkana

The big story out of Nevada is that John Edwards may not have enough to be a player at the Convention. I've been hoping he could consistently get at least 15-20% of the vote, and just enough delegates to prevent either Hillary or Obama from winning outright. Edwards's voice is needed. However moderate his Senate record, his populist campaign has presented issues and style that neither of the big two can match. As I've previously written, his key role has been to push them, and I would like to see him continue doing so. He's likely going to come in a distant third in South Carolina, and many will be calling for him to drop out of the race. I hope he stays in at least until Super Tuesday, but if he fares as poorly in South Carolina as he did today, it's hard to see where he'll do well enough to even remain a player.

Hillary is again the clear frontrunner. Obama's going to win South Carolina by 10-15%, but Nevada showed, once again, that Hillary's institutional support and broad-based appeal is hard to stop. Obama's best chance was probably New Hampshire. This race is far from over, but the polls show Hillary running ahead in the key Super Tuesday states, and how Obama reverses that is hard to see.

I hope the race won't revert to the nastiness of previous weeks. Both sides have engaged in behavior that is destructive to the Party, but both have toned it down. Their supporters in the blogosphere will continue to bring the shrill in increasingly embarrassing ways, but the candidates and their official campaigns must refrain from such. Passions are running high, time is short, and desperation, disappointment, and anger will be setting in. People need to dial that all down.

As I said, Hillary is now the clear frontrunner, but she does not have this thing won. But we all need to support whomever does come out on top. On a personal level, it's no secret that I have problems with Obama, but if he's nominated, I won't hesitate for one moment to vote for him. As for the primaries, as long as Edwards remains in the race, I intend to vote for him.

Turkana :: 1:38 PM :: Comments (20) :: Digg It!