Tuesday :: Feb 5, 2008

Super Tuesday results thread


by Turkana

Georgia's been called for Obama, apparently by a huge margin. This was expected. The key states to watch will be Massachusetts and New Jersey, where Clinton's large leads in the polls appear to have evaporated. Both states should be tight, and they might give us our first glimpse of the larger voting patterns.

Forget the early exit polls. Marc Ambinder explains why.

CNN calls Illinois for Obama and Oklahoma for Clinton. Again, no surprise.

On the Republican side, CNN has declared McCain the winner in Connecticut, Illinois, and New Jersey, with Romney winning Massachusetts. Huckabee already won the West Virginia caucuses.

Arkansas to Clinton and Huckabee. Shocking!

Tennesee to Clinton. The expected is happening as expected.

Another shocker! Clinton wins New York!

NBC calls Massachusetts for Clinton! She'd lost a huge lead, there, and Obama had been endorsed by Governor Patrick and Senators Kerry and Kennedy, so this has to come as a great relief to the Clinton camp. This was the first real unknown.

CNN calls Delaware for Obama. This also was expected, but it's a good win.

Obama wins Alabama.

CNN calls New Jersey for Clinton, and one of the night's possible narratives can now be put to rest: Obama did not get a knockout blow. Seemingly surging in the polls, getting waves of highly publicized endorsements, and with the corporate media and the blogs buzzing, it seemed he might have a huge night. Massachusetts and New Jersey were key to that scenario. It seems that the surge may have been illusory, and that the expectations of a couple weeks ago proved valid. California remains the key to the night, but Clinton has at least held her own. If she wins big in California, she will have done more than that. I still think it most likely she will come out the night's winner, but not by a huge margin.

I had to go out, and I've come back to these returns: Obama wins Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota and Utah; Clinton wins Arizona and California, where she is well ahead. New Mexico is too close to call.

The delegate counts will take time to figure out, but Clinton won by larger than expected margins in large states. Obama's huge margin in his home state of Illinois, and in Georgia, may off-set those Clinton wins. They both did well, but Clinton won most of the contested major states, including the big one, where she appears to be winning big. However this is spun by the corporate media and in the blogs, Clinton did what she needed to do, in the popular vote. She had a very good night.

Big Tent Democrat, who supports Obama, but has always been very fair in his analysis of both candidacies:

Some bloggers and the Obama Network (NBC) will try to spin this away. But the respective speeches given by each of the candiates told the real tale. Clinton was ebulliant. Obama flat.

Of course anything can happen but I think Hillary Clinton stopped Barack Obama for good tonight.

For the record, Big Tent also thought Obama's big Iowa win would give him the momentum to roll right into the Oval Office. Of course, nobody- and I mean nobody- predicted New Hampshire, which turned the entire race upside down. But I agree with Big Tent that Clinton now has the wind in her sails. Money should start pouring in, and if the California numbers hold up, she might even get a nice delegate bump.

Turkana :: 4:11 PM :: Comments (65) :: Digg It!