We Are In A Recession

by Steve Soto

Folks, two separate and highly-respected economic research outfits have now asserted contrary to Bush Administration spin that the economy is already in a recession. Both the Economic Cycle Research Institute and the National Bureau of Economic Research, headed by one Martin Feldstein, both agree that we already are in a recession.

The United States is "unambiguously" in a recession, a New York-based forecasting group said on Thursday, citing a nine-month decline in its weekly measure of the economy.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, which correctly predicted the 2001 recession at a time when many on Wall Street still maintained a rosy outlook, said their numbers indicate the economic contraction is already under way.

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The recession call puts ECRI in line with a growing number of economists who believe the U.S. is already in recession, with some citing December as the likely start date of the downturn.

Martin Feldstein, who heads the highly-regarded National Bureau of Economic Research, has said not only that contraction is under way but also that it could be severe.

"The risks are that it could get very bad," he said last Friday.

Of course, the Bush Administration has virtually banned the use of the word "recession" and instead has browbeaten the Wall Street Kool-Aid drinkers to use the word "slowdown" as part of the official talking points.

Oh, and the jobless picture is going to hell. But let's keep talking about Obama's preacher problem and Clinton's inflated resume, shall we?