Saturday :: Apr 12, 2008

Finishing the Marathon


by CA Pol Junkie

The Democratic presidential primary season has aptly been described as a marathon. The candidates have been running nonstop since well before Iowa voted. The lead runner is approaching mile 22 of the race, keeping up a good stride with plenty of energy. The runner-up is two miles back and a little tired, but has the drive to win. To catch the leader, however, the runner-up will have to run half again as fast as the leader. In a race between elite athletes, catching up is not possible. Short of the leader getting clubbed in the knee or struck by a meteor, the outcome is preordained even though there are several miles left in the race. There is nothing the runner-up can do to affect the final result.

That’s basically where we stand in the Democratic Primary race. Barack Obama has the following delegates, with 2,025 as the magic number to get the nomination:

Pledged Delegates: Obama 1,416, Clinton 1,253
Declared Regular Super Delegates: Obama 216, Clinton 248
Declared Add-on Super Delegates: Obama 6, Clinton 1
Projected Add-on Super Delegates (1): Obama 39, Clinton 30
Pelosi Club Super Delegates (2): Obama 5, Clinton 0
TOTAL: Obama 1,682, Clinton 1,532
(1) Add-on super delegates are selected by state conventions in large part based on which candidate they support. A total add-on distribution of 45-31 in favor of Obama is a conservative projection based on the states he has won or is expected to win.
(2) Pelosi Club super delegates have pledged to support the pledged delegate winner

Clinton would need 61% of the remaining undeclared super delegates and pledged delegates from here on out (which ain’t gonna happen) to win the nomination.

Even though only a political cataclysm would keep Barack Obama from becoming our nominee, there are still good reasons for Senator Clinton to finish the race. This has been the most exciting primary campaign ever, and we have a lot of new Democrats to show for it. Senator Clinton is giving a voice to her supporters and, like Obama, is breaking new ground in American politics. She should keep running as long as she wants to continue and her funding holds out. One thing, though... let’s save the mud slinging for the Republicans, OK? This is our time. The eyes of America and the media are upon us. Let’s finish out the race with a positive message that makes the Democratic Party and our country proud. Then lets cheer each of our candidates when they make it to the finish line.

UPDATE: Democratic Convention Watch has posted an e-mail from Garry Shay, a California super delegate currently supporting Clinton, which details the process he goes through to decide whom to support. Perhaps the most important is this:

Frankly, I hope it doesn't come down to super delegates deciding this.
CA Pol Junkie :: 9:00 PM :: Comments (103) :: Digg It!