Sunday :: Apr 20, 2008

Pennsylvania


by eriposte

I meant to write about this last week but didn't get around to it. I'm just going to reproduce Tom Watson's entire post from April 10 and I hope he doesn't mind:

When they count the votes in Pennsylvania in another twelves days, it might be a good thing to have the handy checklist prepared by commenter swiss473 in Big Tent Democrat's post over at TalkLeft at hand - it rather neatly describes the titanic electoral effort of Barack Obama in the April 22nd primary:

Obama has spent more money and shown more ads in PA than any previous candidate in history.

He has vastly outspent and outadvertised Clinton

He spent a week touring the state, getting the endorsement of the sole Democratic Senator whose name and family is golden in Pennsylvania.

Ever since the Iowa caucuses he has gotten the best media coverage and treatment that any politician has ever received, certainly the best in the last 40 years.

NBC has literally become the National Barackcasting Company and every day and night pundits in the broadcast and print media have annointed him the winner, explained how it's impossible for Hillary to win, have implored her to drop out, and generally praised Obama as the Second Coming.  Even Senators Dodd and Leahy and Speaker Pelosi have pretty much proclaimed Obama the winner.

He has had close to two months since he won 11 straight contests by an average of around 30 pts in states across the country in every region and has broken every single fundraising record there is.

He gave a speech that was praised by the media as a mixture of Lincoln at Gettysburg and King at the Lincoln Memorial with a good measure of Christ at the Mount of the Beatitudes thrown in.

And that list doesn't include the negatives during the same period that have hounded the Clinton campaign. I'm not saying that Barack can't put Hillary away. In fact, I'm gratified that his campaign is actually going for it in Pennsylvania, rather than skipping past it and relying on the delegate math. And given the incredible blitzkrieg of his TV campaign - outspending Hillary five to one, by some estimates - and his personal race across the state, you'd have to give him greater than even odds of beating Clinton; he's the frontrunner, in many circles the de facto nominee, and he has a web-fueled pot of gold in the campaign treasury.

Both campaigns play the expectations game, but it's getting late for that. Given how the table is set, if Obama can't win this blue-leaning swing state against a weakened Clinton, what does it say?

Of course, Sen. Obama has since turned in a weak debate performance (remember that considering The Era of Personal Responsibility is Here, that was also Sen. Clinton's fault), but I don't see that really impacting him much in the Democratic primary. All of his gaffes and missteps will however be a much bigger problem for him in the general election if he becomes the Democratic nominee.

eriposte :: 11:52 AM :: Comments (15) :: Digg It!