Monday :: Apr 21, 2008

Okay, Okay...


by Turkana

You want a Pennsylvania thread. I can feel you. Out there. Waiting. Not wanting to go off-topic (and I seriously thank you for that!). But it's the day before Pennsylvania, so let's talk about it.

My prediction: on Wednesday, people will be screaming for Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race. It won't matter whether she wins by 20 or loses by 5, people will be screaming for her to drop out. In fact, I have a hunch they'll be screaming loudest if she does win by 20!

There are polls out there that can satisfy just about everyone, so comparing them, analyzing the internals, consulting a Ouija board, and weighting for the results of a Magic 8-Ball, I have come up with my own crunchy numbers: Clinton by 5-8 points. A week ago, I would have said 10-12. Barack Obama could still win the state, and Clinton could still win by more than 10, but 5-8 feels about right. That would not be a good margin for her overall chances of winning the popular vote, and would probably lead to a knockout in North Carolina. But I may be wrong...

Turkana :: 2:25 PM :: Comments (47) :: Digg It!