Tuesday :: Apr 22, 2008

Pennsylvania- Clinton wins


by Turkana

The long lead to Pennsylvania was yet another example of the absurdity of the nominating process. But the day has come, and the polls will soon close. The exit polls have something for everyone, so depending on who you trust, or who you want to trust, Obama's winning, Clinton's winning by a small margin, or Clinton's winning by a healthy margin. We'll know, soon enough.

Have at it.

From CNN's exit poll, by gender, it looks like Clinton will win by a bare 51.6-47.8 margin. Take that with a big grain of salt (remember- exit polls have been off by large margins in several states), but if it's true, Clinton did not have a good night.

The networks are beginning to call the race, and it appears the margin will be larger than the early exit polls indicated. It's not yet clear how much larger.

9:03 local time- With 19% of the Philly region reporting, Obama only leads by 8. We don't know the specific precincts, but if that margin doesn't dramatically expand, Clinton's statewide victory margin will.

9:06- On a lighter note, Ron Paul's beating Huckabee for second, on the Republican side.

9:18- 34% of Philly in, and Obama's lead there holding at 10. The rest of the state is slow, coming in.

9:24- 41% of Philly, and Obama's lead expands to 14- which is getting more towards what's expected. Even so, with the rest of the state slow reporting, Clinton's current overall 6 point margin (per CNN) will grow.

9:33- 51% of Philly, and Obama up 18, while Clinton leads the state by 6. But Philly is half the reported statewide results, thus far.

9:44- 33% of the state is in, and Clinton's lead is up to 8. 63% of Philly is in, and Obama's lead there is 18. I'm guessing Clinton will win the state by double digits.

10:15- 58% in, with Clinton up 10. 90% of Philly in, with Obama leading by a whopping 28- more in line with expectations. What this means, though, is that Clinton's 10 point statewide lead should continue to grow. Couple that with the new SUSA poll of North Carolina, which has Obama's lead down to 9, and this was a very good night for the Clinton campaign. Both her donors and the undecided superdelegates have every reason to want this race to continue. Obama is still the clear favorite to win the nomination, but this race, once again, has proved far from decided.

Turkana :: 3:42 PM :: Comments (54) :: Digg It!