Wednesday :: Apr 23, 2008

Not Nearly Enough

by CA Pol Junkie

Pennsylvania was Clinton's latest firewall after Texas and Ohio. She chose it with good reason: its demographics suit the strengths of her campaign. The good news for Senator Clinton is that her firewall against Obama held. Her 8-9% win will give her a net gain of 8-12 delegates. Obama couldn't pull a game-ending upset or keep it to a marginal loss. The bad news is that she has fallen farther behind in her quest for the nomination. With the clock running out on the primaries, her win in Pennsylvania fell far short of what she needed to change the outcome of the nomination process.

Here's about where we stand (mostly from Democratic Convention Watch plus a couple projections):

Pledged Delegates: Obama 1,491, Clinton 1,336
Declared Regular Super Delegates: Obama 224, Clinton 252
Declared Add-on Super Delegates: Obama 8, Clinton 3
Projected Add-on Super Delegates: Obama 37, Clinton 28
Pelosi Club Super Delegates (voting for pledged delegate winner): Obama 5, Clinton 0
TOTAL: Obama 1,765, Clinton 1,619

2,025 is the magic number of delegates needed to secure a majority without the support of Edwards delegates. Before Pennsylvania, Clinton needed 61% of all remaining available delegates to get the nomination. After doing reasonably well in a favorable delegate rich state, now she needs just over 61% of the remaining available delegates to win.

Unfortunately for Senator Clinton, North Carolina is one of the states coming up next. Polling data indicates Barack Obama is likely to gain at least as many delegates there as Clinton did in Pennsylvania. Based on current polling, Clinton will need about 84% of the remaining available super delegates to win the nomination, but the Obama campaign claims groups of delegates will shortly come out for him. In the mean time, we are likely to remain in the same surreal state of the campaign, hard fought but still with the outcome already known.

CA Pol Junkie :: 8:04 AM :: Comments (39) :: Digg It!