Where To Go From Here?

by Steve Soto

Both CA PolJunkie and Eriposte have good posts up today about yesterday's results from Pennsylvania and the remainder of the race. I personally think that to some degree, Obama may have made the same mistake in Pennsylvania that Clinton made in South Carolina: making a big commitment in a state that may have been stacked against you, where the safest play was to avoid overplaying the contest and coming up short. Clinton may face the same fate now in North Carolina, a state that Obama has led comfortably for a while now, where her only reason for competing is to lose by a smaller margin than anticipated yet burning critical cash to do it.

If I were advising Obama, I would tell him to treat Hillary from this point on like a mosquito buzzing him, while returning the focus to your message and an unrelenting critique of John McCain. He can't win a street fight against Hillary, nor should he try because it runs contrary to his political DNA, and it only takes him away from his message. Conversely her desperation made her a more effective candidate, forcing her to appeal to voters' current fears about the economy and their unabated fears about safety. But she runs the risk of sounding more and more shrill as time goes on, and he can minimize her by acknowledging the desperate nature of her effort while also acknowledging that voters legitimately are worried because of the GOP's failures on security and economics, and that both of these are at the top of his agenda upon taking office.

Democrats like Rachel Maddow and other Obama supporters can complain about Hillary's fear-mongering tactics, but welcome to post 9/11 America. We don't have to like it, and we can rail against it all we want, but the sooner Democrats accept that voters' security fears are just as legitimate as their fears about economics, the sooner we can battle the GOP effectively. Psychology tells us that with a recession underway and Osama bin Laden still loose, voters will focus on their basic needs first, and put talk of hope and change on the shelf for another day. Again, it isn't fair and not the kind of campaign many of us wanted to run this time, but Hillary gets it and needs to run this way to survive. Obama has to adjust to this. He also has to figure out why portions of his base didn't turn out yesterday in a non-caucus state while hers did.

Your thoughts on how each candidate should play the game from this point on are welcome.