Friday :: May 2, 2008

Clinton Surge No More Effective Than Iraq Surge


by CA Pol Junkie

Clinton supporters have been excited about polls swinging her direction in the last week. Clinton has gained in the national polls, but those are really silly after 87% of the country has actually voted. More importantly, she has gained ground in North Carolina and Indiana. Clinton might win some battles, just as our troops did in Iraq, but it won't affect how the story ends.

There has been celebration on one side and worrying on the other. I hate to break it to both sides, but it just doesn't matter. Barack Obama still hasn't been hit by a meteor, so he'll still be the Democratic Party nominee.

The current delegate count including declared super delegates stands at about

Obama 1,733 Clinton 1,603

Then there are add-on delegates, which generally go to the winner of each state like the four Clinton gained from New York and three for Obama from Illinois. The add-on delegates to be selected are likely to break approximately 37-23 for Obama because of all the states he has won. That brings us to

Obama 1,770 Clinton 1,626

There are 408 pledged delegates still available. According to the poll averages at pollster.com, and assuming the delegates split like the vote, Clinton will get about 20 more delegates than Obama from here on out. Let's say she increases her margin by 10% everywhere. We'll ignore that such an improvement is essentially impossible in North Carolina, where African-American votes give Obama a high floor, and West Virginia and Kentucky, where Clinton is already expected to win by a huge margin. Even under this unrealistically friendly outcome for Clinton netting her 64 more delegates than Obama, that would leave us at

Obama 1,942 Clinton 1,862

Under this unrealistically rosy scenario for Clinton, Obama would need 82 of the remaining super delegates to secure the nomination and Clinton would need 162. With 5 delegates declared to favor the pledged delegate winner, the majority of remaining elected officials reportedly for Obama or the pledged delegate winner, and many more super delegates eager to follow the crowd, the deck is stacked against Senator Clinton when she needs a big hand.

CA Pol Junkie :: 8:34 AM :: Comments (83) :: Digg It!