NC and IN
Big Tent Democrat says:
The newly all important Obama surrogate Joe Andrew was on Fox today and he flatly predicted Barack Obama will win both Indiana and North Carolina. Apparently he believes Zogby....
Zogby or not - there is no doubt that Sen. Obama is heavily favored to win NC and should be able to win IN comfortably given how he did in IL.
I've pretty much stopped paying much attention to pre-election polls after what happened in New Hampshire, but just to take NC as an example, it seems pretty obvious that Sen. Obama should be able to pull off a significant double digit victory in NC - by a margin of 10-20%. For example, let's assume that African-American (AA) voters vote for him 90-10 over Sen. Clinton and that he gets at least 40% of the White vote (both very reasonable assumptions). Let's simplify the turnout model and assume that the turnout of AAs is 30-40% and correspondingly that the turnout of Whites is 70-60%. In the AA 30 - White 70 turnout scenario, Sen. Obama would win NC 55% - 45% (30*0.9 + 70*0.4). In the AA 40 - White 60 turnout scenario, Sen. Obama would win NC 60% - 40% (40*0.9 + 60*0.4).
The people of NC and IN will tell us their choice on Tuesday.