Monday :: May 5, 2008

Numbers


by Turkana

This is what I love about this campaign season. Not this issue, but how it's polling, and how supporters of each candidate can pick the poll that best comforts them. Two polls that came out on the same day!

USA Today has bad news for Barack Obama:

Barack Obama's national standing has been significantly damaged by the controversy over his former pastor, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, raising questions for some voters about the Illinois senator's values, credibility and electability.

The erosion of support among Democrats and independents raises the stakes in Tuesday's Indiana and North Carolina primaries, which represent a chance for Obama to reassert his claim to a Democratic nomination that seems nearly in his grasp. A defeat in Indiana and a close finish in North Carolina, where he's favored, could fuel unease about his ability to win in November. Such results also could help propel Hillary Rodham Clinton's uphill campaign all the way to the Democratic convention in August.

In the USA TODAY survey, taken Thursday through Saturday, Clinton leads Obama among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents by 7 percentage points, the first time in three months she has been ahead. Two weeks ago, before the controversy over comments by Jeremiah Wright reignited, Obama led by 10 points.

And despite The Math, that's how Obama could still lose the nomination. But don't despair, Obama fans, because the New York Times has the good news!

A majority of American voters say that the furor over the relationship between Senator Barack Obama and his former pastor has not affected their opinion of Mr. Obama, but a substantial number say that it could influence voters this fall should he be the Democratic presidential nominee, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll....

The poll, conducted after Mr. Obama held a news conference on Tuesday in which he renounced his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., for making incendiary comments, found that most Americans said they approved of the way Mr. Obama had responded to the episode and considered his criticism of Mr. Wright appropriate.

Now, the internals of both polls tell more nuanced stories, and so does the reporting in both articles. But the different tones of the two polls and the two articles pretty well sums up the absurdity of this campaign season. And if you want a good measure of the major blogs: how many reported both polls, and how many chose to highlight only the one that promoted their preferred story-line?

Turkana :: 10:14 AM :: Comments (46) :: Digg It!