Tuesday :: May 6, 2008

Results Thread


by Turkana

Exit polls are so consistently wrong that I won't bother posting them.

I predict Obama wins North Carolina by about 12, and Clinton wins Indiana by about 7. I expect to be proven wrong.

If you want to talk about it, this is the place...

7:35 Eastern Time: Obama wins North Carolina, while Indiana is too close to call. The basic demographic trend lines are holding, as they have, as they apparently will.

7:55: Clinton holds a steady 14% lead in Indiana, but only 20% of Indianapolis is in, while nothing at all is in from the very northwestern counties, that are effectively suburbs of Chicago.

8:20: 44% of Indiana reporting, and Clinton still leads by 12. A third of Indianapolis is in, but still nothing from the northwest. Obama will have to win by a landslide in the northwest to overcome Clinton's overall margin.

9:03: Obama is currently winning North Carolina by the same huge margin by which he won many February primaries and caucuses. But most of the results, thus far, have been from his urban strongholds. That margin could shrink. Or maybe the rest of the state will split. Or maybe he'll build on his lead. What's clear, though, is that if he does rack up a huge popular vote win, Clinton's potential overall popular vote argument to the superdelegates will be all but gone.

9:35: Fun fact for the night- a quarter of the Republicans in North Carolina are not voting for McCain. In Indiana, that number is 23%.

10:00: The margins in both states are closing, but Obama's win in North Carolina is a solid double digits, while Clinton is looking at a narrow win in Indiana, that is not yet assured.

10:12: I'll be going out for the night, but I'll close with this thought: if the superdelegates are inclined to end this race, they will do it in the coming days. It's all about spin, now, and both campaigns will make arguments about why their wins were more important than their opponent's, and why their candidate is again proven more electable. But Obama is not going to have another night where any state or territory will provide him with such a large margin of victory. Clinton can look ahead to huge wins in demographically favorable West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico. If the superdelegates are going to make a move, it will be after a big Obama win. If they don't make their move in the coming days, they do intend to wait until June.

Turkana :: 2:36 PM :: Comments (41) :: Digg It!