Tuesday :: May 20, 2008

Kentucky and Oregon


by Turkana

I'll be in and out tonight, but use this as a results thread.

In Kentucky, Clinton won by a whopping 35% and over 240,000 votes. Which is, of course, according to Those That Matter, irrelevant.

CNN and others are now declaring that Obama has won a majority of pledged delegates. As others are pointing out, to make that declaration, they are excluding Florida and Michigan. Which I'm sure will play well with the Democratic voters of Florida and Michigan, come November. It also promotes the metric that winning a majority of pledged delegates means victory, or something. Which it doesn't. Because, as many of us have been trying to explain, the superdelegates will decide this race. Which would be a horrible crime against humanity if they chose Clinton, but is a good thing if they choose Obama. Or something.

What's most interesting, tonight, is the size of Clinton's victory. Despite Obama's big win in North Carolina, Clinton's overwhelming wins in West Virginia and Kentucky have much more than negated that popular vote advantage. In fact, pending Obama's expected victory margin in Oregon, Clinton's possible claim to an overall popular vote win is now very much back on track. But no one who matters will care. That more people very possibly will have voted for Hillary Clinton than for Barack Obama will not matter. That's worth much more thought than most people will give it.

UPDATE: Obama wins Oregon by a larger-than-expected 16%, shaving about 78,000 (and slowly growing) votes off Clinton's total for the night. In the senate race, Jeff Merkley defeated Steve Novick, and will face Republican incumbent Gordon Smith. This is one state where Obama can have a clear down-ballot impact, and the prospect of a Merkley win looks very good.

Turkana :: 6:43 PM :: Comments (68) :: Digg It!