Weekly Polling Report: Disproportionate Campaigning

by CA Pol Junkie

One of the more interesting things to watch this election season is for states outside the traditional (mainly 2000-2004) battlegrounds. We've become accustomed to the "red state / blue state" divide since 2000 that it is easy to forget that states regularly undergo political realignments. California and Vermont were reliable Republican states until 1992; West Virginia was very Democratic until 2000.

This week, the polling analysis god Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com has been posting about organization. Organization (voter registration, voter contact and GOTV) and ads can swing the results a few points by getting the candidate's message out and bringing supporters to the polls. In Virginia, for example, the Obama campaign expects to net about 60,000 extra votes from voter registration efforts for a gain of close to 2% in the election returns. This is in addition to the benefits of GOTV and advertising.

Disproportionate campaigning is when an underdog in a state devotes significant resources while the other counts on historical voting to carry through to election day. The 2000 election had at least 3 examples of this: Bush in West Virginia and Tennessee and Gore in Florida. West Virginia had been a reliably Democratic state and Tennessee was Al Gore's home state, so campaigning hard in either state would look like a sign of weakness on Gore's part. Bush initially ignored Gore's all-out fight for Florida, but then jumped in late there when it became apparent that Gore was serious about taking the state.

McCain has a natural disadvantage in the organization game because people don't really like him. It takes money to set up offices and maintain voter databases plus volunteers to register voters and identify supporters. Money and boots on the ground are where Obama excels, and Nate Silver estimates that the Obama campaign is contacting over 2 million voters per week. McCain failed to take advantage of his early primary win to get organized. His late start and lack of enthusiastic volunteers leaves his campaign contacting only a tiny fraction of the voters Obama's campaign reaches.

Obama has the resources to compete everywhere and it shows in the "red" states he is targeting, like Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Indiana, North Dakota, and Montana. So far, McCain is fighting in Virginia, but is basically ignoring the other states. The polls haven't moved in Obama's direction in those states as of now, but they bear watching as we get closer to the election and the effect of organization becomes more apparent. Obama would also be likely to outperform the final polls in those states because his GOTV will bring more "unlikely" voters to the polls without an equivalent counterpart on McCain's side.

The format of this week's polling report is modified to show states in order from blue to red and the cumulative electoral votes of each candidate. The poll averages used are from pollster.com. A 10 point lead puts a state in the base for each candidate, which means it's not going to be the state to put one candidate or the other over 270. Since those states are boring, their status is not updated here.

The current pollster.com prediction would be Obama 309, McCain 229 with Ohio as the state that puts Obama over the top and Indiana as the closest state. This week, Oregon moves into the competitive zone and Arizona and Kentucky move to where they belong in McCain's base.

Obama Base (200 EV): California, Washington, Hawaii, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, DC, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:
Pennsylvania (Obama +9.1) 221 EV
Delaware (Obama +9.0) 224 EV
New Mexico (Obama +9.0) 229 EV
Iowa(Obama +6.5) 236 EV
Oregon(Obama +6.4) 243 EV

Survey USA 8/2-4 (6/17-19)
Obama 48 (48)
McCain 45 (45)

New Hampshire (Obama +6.1) 247 EV
Michigan(Obama +5.4) 264 EV

Rasmussen 8/7 (7/10)
Obama 49 (50)
McCain 44 (42)

Ohio (Obama +3.6) 284 EV
Montana (Obama +3.1) 287 EV
Virginia(Obama +2.6) 300 EV
Colorado(Obama +1.7) 309 EV
Indiana (McCain +0.6) 229 EV
Florida (McCain +1.1) 218 EV

Survey USA 8/1-3 (2/26-28)
McCain 50 (47)
Obama 44 (45)
Public Policy Polling 7/30-8/2 (6/26-29)
McCain 47 (44)
Obama 44 (46)

North Dakota (McCain +2.4) 191 EV
North Carolina (McCain +2.7) 188 EV
Missouri (McCain +2.8) 173 EV

Rasmussen 8/7 (7/7)
McCain 50
Obama 44
Survey USA 7/29-31 (6/20-22)
McCain 49
Obama 44

Nevada (McCain +3.6) 162 EV
Georgia (McCain +5.5) 157 EV
Alaska (McCain +6.1) 142 EV
Texas (McCain +6.4) 139 EV
South Dakota (McCain +7.1) 105 EV
Arkansas (McCain +7.1) 102 EV
South Carolina (McCain +7.5) 96 EV
Mississippi (McCain +8.9) 88 EV

McCain Base (82 EV): Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia