Thursday :: Aug 28, 2008

Bouncy, Bouncy (Thanks, Hillary!)


by CA Pol Junkie

The Gallup Daily Tracking Poll is basically crack for polling junkies and Obama campaign manager David Plouffe calls it "the worst thing that's happened in journalism in 10 years" but for what it's worth it's fun to play around with. You can extract the daily samples using a spreadsheet if you initialize it with an assumption about two days' polling. Choosing the nice stable August 20-21 period for initializing, you get the following for each day's individual (un-averaged) polling:

August 20: O 45 M 43
August 21: O 45 M 44
August 22: O 45 M 45
August 23: O 45 M 46
August 24: O 45 M 44
August 25: O 42 M 48
August 26: O 48 M 40 (post-Michelle)
August 27: O 54 M 38 (post-Hillary)

If today's sample reverts to Tuesday's 8-point margin, that will put Obama up by double digits in the 3-day tracking poll. We'll see where things land after the GOP convention, but we're certainly seeing a nice poll bounce so far.

CA Pol Junkie :: 2:16 PM :: Comments (23) :: Spotlight :: Digg It!