Weekly Polling Report: On to November!
by CA Pol Junkie
This was a really boring week in polling, and with good reason: all the polls will be obsolete by Thursday or so, at which time McCain's convention bounce will have faded and the fight will be on until November 4th. There's no need to panic about the tracking polls - a good Obama day dropped out of the rolling averages in both Rasmussen and Gallup and was replaced by a good day for McCain. We will probably see lots of state polls come out this week, which will give us a good idea of where we stand by next weekend.
The poll averages used are from pollster.com. A 10 point lead puts a state in the base for each candidate, which means it's not going to be the state to put one candidate or the other over 270. Since those states are boring, their status is not updated here.
The current prediction based on pollster.com would be Obama 309, McCain 229 with Colorado as the state that puts Obama over the top and North Dakota as the closest state. There were just two polls in competitive states in the last week, showing movement toward Obama in North Dakota and Indiana. Two polls out of Alaska confirmed that the Palin selection puts it out of play.
Obama Base (193 EV): California, Washington, Hawaii, Wisconsin, Illinois, DC, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine, Delaware
Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:
Minnesota (Obama +7.5) 203 EV
New Mexico (Obama +7.2) 208 EV
Pennsylvania (Obama +6.9) 229 EV
Oregon (Obama +6.8 236 EV
Iowa (Obama +6.5 243 EV
Michigan (Obama +5.1) 260 EV
Montana (Obama +3.1) 263 EV
Colorado (Obama +1.8) 272 EV
Ohio (Obama +1.7) 292 EV
New Hampshire (Obama +1.6) 296 EV
Virginia (Obama +1.3) 309 EV
North Dakota (McCain +0.1) 229 EV
DFM Research 8/23-27:
McCain Base (81 EV): Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Mississippi, Alaska