Pollster Cheers and Jeers: Insider Advantage
by CA Pol Junkie
We're seeing a flood of state polls now that the conventions are over. They aren't very stable yet, as they are catching McCain's convention bounce and his reignition of the culture wars. They are also quite divergent in a number of cases. I'd like to highlight four polls put out today by Insider Advantage, who to their credit released demographic breakdowns of their polls. The margins of error are high on the subsets, but on a broad scale we can still learn alot from them.
Overall: Obama 49, McCain 4618-29: Obama 64, McCain 32
30-44: Obama 44, McCain 51
45-64: Obama 44, McCain 49
65+: Obama 47, McCain 48
Caucasian: Obama 43, McCain 50
African-American: Obama 73, McCain 25
Hispanic: Obama 76, McCain 22
Male: Obama 49, McCain 46
Female: Obama 49, McCain 46
Colorado is in some ways what we expect, especially the strong support among the young, Hispanics, and African-Americans. There are a few things that look odd as well, like the lack of a gender gap, and the relatively mild support from African-Americans. The latter is a problem many pollsters had in the primaries, as Obama ended up with 95% support, much more than he had in polls. He'll receive about that much support in November as well.
Overall: Obama 42, McCain 5018-29: Obama 49, McCain 46
30-44: Obama 44, McCain 43
45-64: Obama 43, McCain 53
65+: Obama 32, McCain 59
Caucasian: Obama 36, McCain 56
African-American: Obama 79, McCain 19
Hispanic: Obama 42, McCain 43
Male: Obama 36, McCain 55
Female: Obama 47, McCain 46
This is just about exactly what we should expect from a Florida poll, in terms of the gradation of results with age and the racial breakdown. In spite of the apparent 8 point lead for McCain, this poll actually spells real trouble for him. The Reverse Bradley Effect (shifting African-Americans to 95-5 support for Obama) will narrow McCain's 8 point margin by about 5.5 points. Splitting the Hispanic vote, which is realistic considering the realignment of Cuban-Americans, is big trouble for Republicans.
Now for the more peculiar polls:
Ohio:
Overall: Obama 47, McCain 4818-29: Obama 55, McCain 41
30-44: Obama 38, McCain 57
45-64: Obama 51, McCain 43
65+: Obama 41, McCain 52
Caucasian: Obama 42, McCain 52
African-American: Obama 48, McCain 23
Hispanic: Obama 88, McCain 9
Male: Obama 41, McCain 56
Female: Obama 51, McCain 42
Theoretically, the high margin of error on the subsets can account for the weird age distribution, but I'd bet on response bias being part of it. The Hispanics and African-American demographics are not reversed above. There were probably very few Hispanics polled, but again we will see a severe Reverse Bradley Effect among African-Americans, who are a significant part of the electorate in Ohio. Again, the latter effect will help Obama, increasing his margin by about 6.5 points.
Overall: Obama 44, McCain 4518-29: Obama 37, McCain 50
30-44: Obama 56, McCain 43
45-64: Obama 58, McCain 44
65+: Obama 43, McCain 41
Caucasian: Obama 40, McCain 49
African-American: Obama 77, McCain 16
Hispanic: Obama 37, McCain 63
Male: Obama 33, McCain 58
Female: Obama 56, McCain 33
Obama is losing in Michigan!?! OMG!! Panic!! Oh, wait. The poll is really goofy. Note McCain winning the young and Obama cleaning up among the middle aged. I don't know how the math works to give McCain the lead unless the number of 18-29 year olds is more than the number of 30-65 year olds. Note also the spectacular gender gap - does anyone believe that, especially relative to other states?
This week is exciting in the polls, but we still shouldn't take them too seriously, OK?