Mostly Daily Polling Report 9/18

by CA Pol Junkie

It's becoming clear that the Palin bounce is not only ending, but ending hard. The last few days have seen precipitous changes in the tracking polls, which will be followed by equivalent changes in the state polls. Many of the state polls released today were still in the field over the weekend, before political gravity overwhelmed the McCain campaign, so we should continue to see the trends in Obama's favor for the next few days at least.

These polling reports were posted on Sundays, but there is now such quantity of polls coming out every day that compiling them for a week is becoming unmanageable. The plan is to release these updates daily in early evening Pacific time unless I'm too busy. Today's report covers the 4 days since Sunday with almost 50 polls in the competitive states.

The poll averages are now the creation of a magic spreadsheet. Internet polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls from the previous week are given 1/2 weight and those from the week before are given 1/4 weight. Before deweighting, polls from previous weeks are adjusted to present day conditions based on the change in the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. This method is very responsive to recent changes and counts on a large volume of polls to balance each other out and maintain the stability of the analysis.

Base states are those which are not seriously contested, although West Virginia is included as competitive thanks to 2 recent polls giving McCain leads of 4 and 5 points. Tip of the hat to pollster.com for the compendium of links to polls.

The current prediction would be Obama 278, McCain 260 with Pennsylvania as the state that puts Obama over the top and Nevada as the closest state.

Obama Base (172 EV): California, Hawaii, Illinois, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Oregon (Obama +6.0) 179 EV

Moore Information 9/10-11:
Obama 43
McCain 37
Rasmussen 9/16 (8/7):
Obama 51 (52)
McCain 47 (42)
Portland Tribune 9/11-14:
Obama 50
McCain 40

Washington (Obama +5.8) 190 EV

Elway 9/6-8 (7/22-31):
Obama 46 (47)
McCain 37 (35)
Strategic Vision 9/14-16 (7/25-27):
Obama 47 (48)
McCain 42 (37)

Iowa (Obama +5.7) 197 EV

Univ of Wisconsin Madison 9/14-17:
Obama 45
McCain 45

New Mexico (Obama +5.6) 202 EV

ARG 9/14-16:
Obama 51
McCain 44
Survey USA 9/14-16 (6/17-19):
Obama 52 (49)
McCain 44 (46)
FD/National Journal 9/11-15:
Obama 49
McCain 42

New Hampshire (Obama +4.6) 206 EV

ARG 9/10-13:
McCain 48
Obama 45

Colorado (Obama +4.5) 215 EV

Rasmussen 9/14 (9/7):
McCain 48 (46)
Obama 46 (49)
ARG 9/10-13:
McCain 46
Obama 44
FD/National Journal 9/11-15:
Obama 45
McCain 44
Insider Advantage 9/17 (9/10):
Obama 51 (49)
McCain 41 (46)

Michigan (Obama +4.1) 232 EV

Univ of Wisconsin Madison 9/14-17:
Obama 48
McCain 44

Minnesota (Obama +3.7) 242 EV

Univ of Wisconsin Madison 9/14-17:
Obama 47
McCain 45

Wisconsin (Obama +3.1) 252 EV

CNN/Time 9/14-16:
Obama 50
McCain 47
Rasmussen 9/16 (8/5):
Obama 48 (51)
McCain 46 (44)
Univ of Wisconsin Madison 9/14-17:
Obama 45
McCain 44

Pennsylvania (Obama +1.6) 273 EV

Rasmussen 9/14 (9/7):
Obama 47 (47)
McCain 47 (45)
Univ of Wisconsin Madison 9/14-17:
Obama 45
McCain 45

Nevada (Obama +0.0) 278 EV

ARG 9/12-14:
McCain 49
Obama 46

Ohio (McCain +0.8) 260 EV

Suffolk 9/10-13:
McCain 46
Obama 42
Rasmussen 9/14 (9/7):
McCain 48 (51)
Obama 45 (44)
Survey USA 9/12-14 (6/20-22):
McCain 49 (46)
Obama 45 (48)
Public Policy Polling 9/13-14 (8/12-14):
McCain 48 (45)
Obama 44 (45)
ARG 9/10-13:
McCain 50
Obama 44
CNN/Time 9/14-16 (8/31-9/2):
Obama 49 (47)
McCain 47 (45)
FD/National Journal 9/11-15:
McCain 42
Obama 41

Florida (McCain +2.2) 240 EV

Rasmussen 9/14 (9/7):
McCain 49 (48)
Obama 44 (48)
CNN/Time 9/14-16:
Obama 48
McCain 48
ARG 9/10-13:
McCain 46
Obama 46
Survey USA 9/16-17 (8/1-3):
McCain 51 (50)
Obama 45 (44)
FD/National Journal 9/11-15:
Obama 44
McCain 44

Indiana (McCain +3.3) 213 EV

Selzer 9/14-16 (4/20-23):
Obama 47 (49)
McCain 44 (41)
Univ of Wisconsin Madison 9/14-17:
McCain 47
Obama 43

West Virginia (McCain +3.5) 202 EV

ARG 9/14-16:
McCain 49
Obama 45

Montana (McCain +4.1) 197 EV

ARG 9/7-9:
McCain 49
Obama 47

Missouri (McCain +4.2) 194 EV

ARG 9/11-15:
McCain 50
Obama 45

Virginia (McCain +4.4) 183 EV

Survey USA 9/5-7 (8/8-10):
McCain 49 (48)
Obama 47 (47)
Rasmussen 9/14 (9/7):
Obama 48 (47)
McCain 48 (49)
Survey USA 9/12-14 (9/5-7):
Obama 50 (47)
McCain 46 (49)
Public Policy Polling 9/13-14 (8/20-22):
Obama 48 (47)
McCain 46 (45)
Christopher Newport University 9/10-14:
McCain 48
Obama 39
FD/National Journal 9/11-15:
McCain 48
Obama 41

North Carolina (McCain +6.9) 170 EV

ARG 9/13-16:
McCain 52
Obama 41
CNN/Time 9/14-16:
McCain 51
Obama 45
CNN/Time 9/14-16:
McCain 48
Obama 47

North Dakota (McCain +7.7) 155 EV

McCain Base (152 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina