Mostly Daily Polling Report 9/19
by CA Pol Junkie
Today, we got polls from ARG which were in-line with current predictions in Washington, Indiana, and North Dakota. Marist polls in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania improve Obama's poll average in each state. Rasmussen and Elon University have polls out in Indiana and North Carolina respectively which reinforce the current state of the race in each case. Survey USA has a poll putting Obama up by double digits in Iowa, essentially confirming that the surprising Big Ten poll putting the state in a dead heat was an outlier.
Base states are those which are not seriously contested, although West Virginia is included as competitive thanks to 2 recent polls giving McCain leads of 4 and 5 points. Tip of the hat to pollster.com for the compendium of links to polls.
The current prediction would be Obama 278, McCain 260 with Nevada as the state that puts Obama over the top and Ohio as the closest state. New Hampshire shifts down because I had inadvertently left a McCain friendly poll out of the spreadsheet. Unpolled states shifted about 0.2 points toward Obama because of his improvement in the tracking polls.
Obama Base (172 EV): California, Hawaii, Illinois, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine
Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:
Iowa (Obama +9.0) 179 EV
Survey USA 9/17-18:
Washington (Obama +6.3) 190 EV
Oregon (Obama +6.2) 197 EV
Michigan (Obama +6.0) 214 EV
New Mexico (Obama +5.8) 219 EV
Colorado (Obama +4.7) 228 EV
Minnesota (Obama +3.9) 238 EV
Pennsylvania (Obama +3.4) 259 EV
Wisconsin (Obama +3.3) 269 EV
Nevada (Obama +0.6) 274 EV
New Hampshire (Obama +0.5) 278 EV
Ohio (McCain +0.3) 260 EV
Florida (McCain +2.0) 240 EV
Indiana (McCain +3.3) 213 EV
West Virginia (McCain +3.4) 202 EV
Montana (McCain +3.6) 197 EV
Missouri (McCain +4.0) 194 EV
Virginia (McCain +4.2) 183 EV
North Carolina (McCain +6.7) 170 EV
North Dakota (McCain +8.2) 155 EV
McCain Base (152 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina
The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls from the previous week are given 1/2 weight and those from the week before are given 1/4 weight. Before deweighting, polls from previous weeks are adjusted to present day conditions based on the change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. This method is very responsive to recent changes and counts on a large volume of polls to balance each other out and maintain the stability of the analysis.