Friday :: Sep 19, 2008

Mostly Daily Polling Report 9/19


by CA Pol Junkie

Today, we got polls from ARG which were in-line with current predictions in Washington, Indiana, and North Dakota. Marist polls in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania improve Obama's poll average in each state. Rasmussen and Elon University have polls out in Indiana and North Carolina respectively which reinforce the current state of the race in each case. Survey USA has a poll putting Obama up by double digits in Iowa, essentially confirming that the surprising Big Ten poll putting the state in a dead heat was an outlier.

Base states are those which are not seriously contested, although West Virginia is included as competitive thanks to 2 recent polls giving McCain leads of 4 and 5 points. Tip of the hat to pollster.com for the compendium of links to polls.

The current prediction would be Obama 278, McCain 260 with Nevada as the state that puts Obama over the top and Ohio as the closest state. New Hampshire shifts down because I had inadvertently left a McCain friendly poll out of the spreadsheet. Unpolled states shifted about 0.2 points toward Obama because of his improvement in the tracking polls.

Obama Base (172 EV): California, Hawaii, Illinois, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:
Iowa (Obama +9.0) 179 EV

Survey USA 9/17-18:
Obama 54
McCain 43

Washington (Obama +6.3) 190 EV

ARG 9/16-18:
Obama 50
McCain 44

Oregon (Obama +6.2) 197 EV
Michigan (Obama +6.0) 214 EV

Marist 9/11-15:
Obama 52
McCain 43

New Mexico (Obama +5.8) 219 EV
Colorado (Obama +4.7) 228 EV
Minnesota (Obama +3.9) 238 EV
Pennsylvania (Obama +3.4) 259 EV

Marist 9/11-15:
Obama 49
McCain 44

Wisconsin (Obama +3.3) 269 EV
Nevada (Obama +0.6) 274 EV
New Hampshire (Obama +0.5) 278 EV
Ohio (McCain +0.3) 260 EV

Marist 9/11-15:
Obama 47
McCain 45

Florida (McCain +2.0) 240 EV
Indiana (McCain +3.3) 213 EV

ARG 9/14-18:
McCain 47
Obama 44
Rasmussen 9/17-18:
McCain 49
Obama 47

West Virginia (McCain +3.4) 202 EV
Montana (McCain +3.6) 197 EV
Missouri (McCain +4.0) 194 EV
Virginia (McCain +4.2) 183 EV
North Carolina (McCain +6.7) 170 EV

Elon 9/11-15:
McCain 41
Obama 35

North Dakota (McCain +8.2) 155 EV

ARG 9/14-18:
McCain 52
Obama 43

McCain Base (152 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls from the previous week are given 1/2 weight and those from the week before are given 1/4 weight. Before deweighting, polls from previous weeks are adjusted to present day conditions based on the change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. This method is very responsive to recent changes and counts on a large volume of polls to balance each other out and maintain the stability of the analysis.

CA Pol Junkie :: 4:09 PM :: Comments (10) :: Digg It!