Sunday :: Sep 21, 2008

Daily Polling Report 9/21


by CA Pol Junkie

The weekend has been pretty quiet as there are only 6 new polls to report. Two polls from Michigan show Obama with a 1-2 point lead. A poll from Ohio looks discouraging at first glance, having McCain leading by 6, but it was in the field over last weekend, before the Palin bounce came crashing down. That poll keeps Ohio narrowly on the red side of the political ledger. North Carolina continued its tradition of bipolar polling with PPP indicating that the race is tied there. Three of the eight North Carolina polls in September have given McCain a lead of 11-20 points, but the remainder average out to a 3-point lead for McCain. A new poll from Florida matched the consensus that McCain is very narrowly ahead there.

Base states are those which are not seriously contested, although West Virginia is included as competitive thanks to 2 recent polls giving McCain leads of 4 and 5 points. Rasmussen has reported close contests in Maine and South Carolina, but those results are unconfirmed and neither state is contested so each remains part of their respective bases. Tip of the hat to pollster.com for the compendium of links to polls.

The current prediction remains Obama 278, McCain 260 with Nevada as the state that puts Obama over the top and Ohio as the closest state. Unpolled states generally shifted a little toward Obama as older polls fall off the averages and the tracking poll average continues to improve for Obama.

Obama Base (172 EV): California, Hawaii, Illinois, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Iowa (Obama +8.9) 179 EV
Washington (Obama +6.5) 190 EV
Oregon (Obama +6.4) 197 EV
New Mexico (Obama +5.4) 202 EV
Colorado (Obama +4.9) 211 EV
Michigan (Obama +4.5) 228 EV

EPIC/MRA 9/14-17 (8/18-21):
Obama 43 (43)
McCain 42 (41)
ARG 9/16-19:
Obama 48
McCain 46

Pennsylvania (Obama +3.6) 249 EV
Wisconsin (Obama +3.5) 259 EV
Minnesota (Obama +3.4) 269 EV
Nevada (Obama +1.3) 274 EV
New Hampshire (Obama +1.2) 278 EV
Ohio (McCain +0.1) 260 EV

Univ of Cincinnati 9/12-16 (9/5-10):
McCain 48 (48)
Obama 42 (44)

Florida (McCain +1.6) 240 EV

Research 2000 9/15-18:
McCain 46
Obama 45

Indiana (McCain +2.3) 213 EV
Montana (McCain +2.9) 197 EV
West Virginia (McCain +3.1) 202 EV
Missouri (McCain +3.5) 194 EV

Research 2000 9/15-18 (7/7-10):
McCain 49 (43)
Obama 45 (48)

Virginia (McCain +4.0) 183 EV
North Carolina (McCain +6.5) 170 EV

Public Policy Polling 9/17-19 (9/9):
Obama 46 (44)
McCain 46 (48)

North Dakota (McCain +9.5) 155 EV

McCain Base (152 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls from the previous week are given 1/2 weight and those from the week before are given 1/4 weight. Before deweighting, polls from previous weeks are adjusted to present day conditions based on the change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. This method is very responsive to recent changes and counts on a large volume of polls to balance each other out and maintain the stability of the analysis.

CA Pol Junkie :: 4:24 PM :: Comments (5) :: Digg It!