Monday :: Sep 22, 2008

Daily Polling Report 9/22


by CA Pol Junkie

A blizzard of polls came out today, mostly favorable to Obama as the state polls are catching up with the national polls. Some polls put space between Obama and McCain in New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and even Virginia. A set of Rasmussen polls had very similar results from last week in spite of Obama's national gains, reflecting the relative stability of their methodology.

Base states are those which are not seriously contested or have a poll average margin of at least 10. The method of calculating the poll averages, described at the bottom of this post, changes somewhat to use daily corrections instead of weekly. This also makes it respond quickly to changes in the national tracking polls. Oregon, New Mexico, and Iowa are now in Obama's base states. Obama has moved resources from North Dakota into Minnesota and Wisconsin, so the former is now part of McCain's base. Tip of the hat to pollster.com for the compendium of links to polls.

The current prediction is now Obama 322, McCain 216 with New Hampshire as the state that puts Obama over the top and Nevada as the closest state. Virginia turns blue thanks to favorable new polls; Ohio, Indiana, and Nevada join the Obama states thanks to the national trend adjusting older polls.

Obama Base (191 EV): California, Oregon, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Illinois, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Washington (Obama +8.7) 202 EV
Michigan (Obama +6.1) 219 EV


Rasmussen 9/21 (9/14-16):
Obama 51 (50)
McCain 44 (44)

Colorado (Obama +5.9) 228 EV
Wisconsin (Obama +3.5) 238 EV


ARG 9/18-21:
Obama 50
McCain 45

Pennsylvania (Obama +4.5) 259 EV


Mason-Dixon 9/18-21:
Obama 46
McCain 44
Rasmussen 9/21 (9/14-16):
Obama 48 (47)
McCain 45 (47)

Minnesota (Obama +4.4) 269 EV


ARG 9/18-20:
Obama 48
McCain 47
Rasmussen 9/18 (8/13):
Obama 52 (49)
McCain 44 (45)

New Hampshire (Obama +4.3) 273 EV
Virginia (Obama +1.4) 286 EV


ARG 9/18-20:
McCain 48
Obama 46
Survey USA 9/19-21 (9/12-14):
Obama 51 (50)
McCain 45 (46)
ABC News / Washington Post 9/18-21:
Obama 49
McCain 46
Rasmussen 9/21 (9/14):
McCain 50 (48)
Obama 48 (48)

Ohio (Obama +1.0) 306 EV


Rasmussen 9/21 (9/14):
McCain 50 (48)
Obama 46 (45)

Indiana (Obama +0.5) 317 EV
Nevada (Obama +0.5) 322 EV


Suffolk 9/17-21:
McCain 45.8
Obama 45.3

West Virginia (McCain +0.6) 216 EV
Florida (McCain +0.8) 211 EV


Miami Herald 9/14-17:
McCain 47
Obama 45
Rasmussen 9/21 (9/14):
McCain 51 (49)
Obama 46 (44)

Missouri (McCain +1.4) 184 EV
Montana (McCain +1.8) 173 EV
North Carolina (McCain +3.2) 170 EV


Rasmussen 9/18 (8/13):
McCain 50 (50)
Obama 47 (44)

McCain Base (155 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls having 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls having 1/4 weight. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

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