Tuesday :: Sep 23, 2008

Daily Polling Report 9/23


by CA Pol Junkie

Today's polls mostly followed the current poll averages. This includes two polls showing an Obama lead in Colorado and one showing a comfortable lead in Wisconsin. Interesting results include a Mason-Dixon poll putting Obama up 2 in Florida and a University of New Hampshire poll putting McCain ahead 2 there. Minnesota and Pennsylvania are only a couple points more blue than Obama's national average, whereas Kerry did 5-6 points better in those states than he did nationally. Although Obama is currently a fairly strong favorite in both states, they could potentially become pivotal states if the national race tightens.

The current prediction is now Obama 349, McCain 189 with New Hampshire as the state that puts Obama over the top and Florida as the closest state. Florida is now technically blue thanks to the Mason-Dixon poll, but Obama's projected margin of 0.03% is hardly comfortable. Obama's gaudy projected electoral vote win shouldn't be taken too seriously, however, as movement of 2% would shift 6 states and 80 electoral votes over to McCain. Obama is currently in very good shape to secure at least a 269-269 tie, which he would probably win in the House of Representatives. Tip of the hat to pollster.com for the compendium of links to polls.

Obama Base (191 EV): California, Oregon, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Illinois, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Washington (Obama +9.1) 202 EV
Michigan (Obama +6.3) 219 EV


Quinnipiac 9/14-21 (7/14-22):
Obama 48 (46)
McCain 44 (42)

Wisconsin (Obama +6.2) 229 EV


Quinnipiac 9/14-21 (7/14-22):
Obama 49 (50)
McCain 42 (39)

Colorado (Obama +6.1) 238 EV


Quinnipiac 9/14-21 (8/15-21):
Obama 49 (46)
McCain 45 (47)
Public Policy Polling 9/20-21 (9/7-9):
Obama 51 (47)
McCain 44 (46)

Pennsylvania (Obama +4.5) 259 EV


ARG 9/20-22:
Obama 50
McCain 46

Minnesota (Obama +4.5) 269 EV


Quinnipiac 9/14-21 (7/14-22):
Obama 47 (46)
McCain 45 (44)

New Hampshire (Obama +1.9) 273 EV


Univ of NH 9/14-21 (7/11-20):
McCain 47 (43)
Obama 45 (46)

Virginia (Obama +1.8) 286 EV
Ohio (Obama +1.2) 306 EV


Insider Advantage 9/22 (9/10):
Obama 46 (47)
McCain 46 (48)

Indiana (Obama +0.9) 317 EV
Nevada (Obama +0.9) 322 EV
Florida (Obama +0.0) 349 EV


Mason-Dixon 9/16-18 (8/25-26):
Obama 47 (45)
McCain 45 (44)

West Virginia (McCain +0.2) 189 EV
Missouri (McCain +1.0) 184 EV
Montana (McCain +1.5) 173 EV
North Carolina (McCain +2.2) 170 EV


Civitas 9/17-20 (9/6-10):
McCain 45 (47)
Obama 45 (44)

McCain Base (155 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls having 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls having 1/4 weight. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

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