Wednesday :: Sep 24, 2008

Daily Polling Report 9/24


by CA Pol Junkie

Today, we have triple confirmation that Obama leads in Colorado by mid-single digits. We also have clashing polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. A new poll in West Virginia places it about where expected: a small McCain lead, and a poll from Montana indicates it may be headed for McCain's base. Now we just need fresh polls from Indiana and maybe Missouri to see if Obama's recent rise in the national polls has made those states competitive.

The current prediction is now Obama 322, McCain 216 with New Hampshire as the state that puts Obama over the top and Florida as the closest state. Florida is back on McCain's side thanks to a Strategic Vision poll. Obama is in very good shape to secure at least a 269-269 tie. Then he needs to win one of the nine states within 3 points of even (NH, NV, OH, VA, IN, FL, MO, WV, or NC) to avoid having the presidency decided in the House. Tip of the hat to pollster.com for the compendium of links to polls.

Obama Base (191 EV): California, Oregon, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Illinois, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Washington (Obama +9.7) 202 EV


Survey USA 9/21-22 (9/5-7):
Obama 54 (49)
McCain 43 (45)

Wisconsin (Obama +6.2) 212 EV
Colorado (Obama +6.0) 221 EV


Insider Advantage 9/23 (9/17):
Obama 50 (51)
McCain 41 (41)
CNN/Time 9/21-23 (8/24-26):
Obama 51 (46)
McCain 47 (47)
Rasmussen 9/23 (9/14):
Obama 50 (46)
McCain 47 (48)

Michigan (Obama +5.2) 238 EV


Market Research Group 9/15-20:
McCain 46
Obama 43
CNN/Time 9/21-23 (9/7-9):
Obama 51 (49)
McCain 46 (45)

Pennsylvania (Obama +4.7) 259 EV


CNN/Time 9/21-23 (8/24-26):
Obama 53 (48)
McCain 44 (43)
Strategic Vision 9/21-23 (9/5-7):
Obama 47 (47)
McCain 46 (45)

Minnesota (Obama +4.5) 269 EV
New Hampshire (Obama +1.9) 273 EV


Rasmussen 9/23 (8/19):
McCain 49 (46)
Obama 47 (47)
Marist 9/23:
Obama 51
McCain 45

Nevada (Obama +1.8) 278 EV


New West/Myers/Grove 9/14-19:
Obama 47
McCain 45

Ohio (Obama +1.2) 298 EV
Virginia (Obama +1.2) 311 EV


Mason-Dixon 9/17-22:
McCain 47
Obama 44

Indiana (Obama +0.9) 322 EV
Florida (McCain +0.4) 216 EV


Strategic Vision 9/21-23 (8/22-24):
McCain 48 (49)
Obama 45 (42)

Missouri (McCain +1.0) 184 EV
North Carolina (McCain +2.2) 170 EV
West Virginia (McCain +2.4) 189 EV


CNN/Time 9/21-23:
McCain 50
Obama 46

Montana (McCain +7.9) 173 EV


CNN/Time 9/21-23:
Obama 54
McCain 43

McCain Base (155 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

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