Thursday :: Sep 25, 2008

Daily Polling Report 9/25

by CA Pol Junkie

In Michigan, we had five (!) dueling pollsters giving Obama leads of 13, 10, 8, 3, and 0 points. Something tells me there are sources of error besides the famed "margin of error". Three pollsters were more reasonably clustered in Pennsylvania around an Obama lead of 4 points. Polls for Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Ohio confirmed the status quo in each state or were slightly favorable to McCain. Two interesting Rasmussen polls out today showed Obama ahead for the first time by 2 points in North Carolina and McCain ahead by 8 in West Virginia.

For those of you concerned about a 269-269 tie scenario, Nate Silver did a nice write-up of what the Constitution says and the practical matters of what would happen. McCain would need to get the votes of 26 state delegations to be elected president by the House. They currently control 21, a few of which are deeply imperiled (AK, NM, NV). Many of the states the Democrats control by a single vote would only become a tie if one seat switched to the GOP, which is no use to the Republicans since tied states can't vote. Even with a couple Democratic defectors (SD, ND) and no GOP defectors (DE) it would be very difficult for them to get to 26 delegations. If neither side controls 26 delegations, nobody gets chosen president by the House. The new Senate, firmly under Democratic control after gaining about 5 seats, will choose ObamaBiden for VP and he would end up as "acting" president on January 20th. Update: Alan in the comments corrects me, as the Senate can only choose among the top two finishers in the electoral college vote for Vice President. Biden and Obama would then have to play musical Vice President appointments to straighten out the ticket. To avoid this annoying scenario, the House would probably just arrange it so Obama would get voted in if McCain didn't have the necessary 26 delegations.

The current prediction remains Obama 322, McCain 216 with Nevada as the state that puts Obama over the top and Indiana as the closest state. Unpolled states shift slightly toward McCain today because the drop in the Gallup national tracking poll more than made up for the rise in the Rasmussen poll. Tip of the hat to for the compendium of links to polls.

Obama Base (191 EV): California, Oregon, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Illinois, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Washington (Obama +9.4) 202 EV
Wisconsin (Obama +5.9) 212 EV

Research 2000 9/23-24:
Obama 49
McCain 43

Colorado (Obama +5.6) 221 EV
Michigan (Obama +5.4) 238 EV

EPIC-MRA 9/20-22 (9/14-17):
Obama 48 (43)
McCain 38 (42)
National Journal 9/18-22:
Obama 47
McCain 39
Mason-Dixon 9/18-23:
Obama 46
McCain 46
Selzer 9/22-24 (8/17-20):
Obama 51 (46)
McCain 38 (39)
Strategic Vision 9/22-24 (9/5-7):
Obama 48 (45)
McCain 45 (44)

Pennsylvania (Obama +4.2) 259 EV

Survey USA 9/23-24 (5/16-18):
Obama 50 (48)
McCain 44 (40)
National Journal 9/18-22:
Obama 43
McCain 41
Rasmussen 9/23 (9/21):
Obama 49 (48)
McCain 45 (45)

Minnesota (Obama +4.1) 269 EV
Nevada (Obama +1.4) 274 EV
New Hampshire (Obama +1.3) 278 EV

National Journal 9/18-22:
Obama 44
McCain 43

Virginia (Obama +0.8) 311 EV
Ohio (Obama +0.7) 298 EV

Rasmussen 9/23 (9/14):
McCain 47 (48)
Obama 46 (45)

Indiana (Obama +0.5) 322 EV
Florida (McCain +0.8) 216 EV
Missouri (McCain +1.3) 184 EV
North Carolina (McCain +1.7) 170 EV

Rasmussen 9/24 (9/18):
Obama 49 (47)
McCain 47 (50)

West Virginia (McCain +5.0) 189 EV

Rasmussen 9/24 (6/2):
McCain 50 (45)
Obama 42 (37)

Montana (McCain +8.3) 173 EV

McCain Base (155 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

CA Pol Junkie :: 4:16 PM :: Comments (12) :: Digg It!