Friday :: Sep 26, 2008

Daily Polling Report 9/26

by CA Pol Junkie

Today was New Hampshire day, with three polls showing narrow leads for Obama. It's pretty clear that unlike Kerry, Obama is underperforming in New Hampshire relative to his national average. Two polls in Missouri agreed with the polling projection that McCain is very narrowly ahead there. The poll of the day for Obama supporters is the Rasmussen poll putting Obama ahead 5 in Virginia after being behind by 2 less than a week ago. Rasmussen tends to have very stable polling thanks to their weighting by party identification, so there is very likely to be a real trend toward Obama in Virginia. On the flip side, ARG was quite the contrarian in putting McCain ahead 3 in Colorado while Research 2000 puts Montana out of Obama's reach. A poll from Pennsylvania fit the trend of Obama being ahead by mid-single digits there and and two polls agreed that Florida is a toss-up.

The current prediction remains Obama 349, McCain 189 with Virginia as the state that puts Obama over the top and Florida as the closest state. Obama's gains in the national tracking polls pushes perennial tease Florida over to the blue side, but it could flip back over the weekend if Obama sneezes during the debate. Washington joins the Obama base; Montana will probably join the McCain base soon. Tip of the hat to for the compendium of links to polls.

Obama Base (202 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Illinois, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Wisconsin (Obama +6.7) 212 EV
Michigan (Obama +6.3) 229 EV
Colorado (Obama +5.2) 238 EV

ARG 9/23-25 (9/10-13):
McCain 48 (46)
Obama 45 (44)

Pennsylvania (Obama +5.0) 259 EV

Muhlenberg 9/21-24:
Obama 47
McCain 43

Minnesota (Obama +5.0) 269 EV
Virginia (Obama +0.8) 282 EV

Rasmussen 9/25 (9/21):
Obama 50 (48)
McCain 45 (50)

New Hampshire (Obama +2.3) 286 EV

Strategic Vision 9/22-24:
Obama 46
McCain 45
Research 2000 9/22-24:
Obama 48
McCain 44
Suffolk 9/21-24:
Obama 46
McCain 45

Nevada (Obama +2.3) 291 EV
Ohio (Obama +1.5) 311 EV
Indiana (Obama +1.4) 322 EV
Florida (Obama +0.3) 349 EV

Rasmussen 9/25 (9/21):
McCain 48 (51)
Obama 47 (46)
ARG 9/23-25 (9/14-17):
Obama 47 (46)
McCain 46 (46)

Missouri (McCain +0.7) 189 EV

Research 2000 9/22-24 (9/15-18):
McCain 47 (49)
Obama 46 (45)
Survey USA 9/23-24 (7/29-31):
McCain 48 (50)
Obama 46 (44)

North Carolina (McCain +0.9) 178 EV
West Virginia (McCain +4.2) 163 EV
Montana (McCain +9.6) 158 EV

Research 2000 9/22-24:
McCain 52
Obama 39

McCain Base (155 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

CA Pol Junkie :: 4:31 PM :: Comments (6) :: Digg It!