Monday :: Sep 29, 2008

Daily Polling Report 9/29


by CA Pol Junkie

Everyone might be wishing they put their 401(k) under their mattress on January 20, 2001 but the polls go on even as Washington and Wall Street put their dysfunction on display. A PPP poll out of North Carolina was the second to give Obama a 2 point lead there. Rasmussen came out with 5 polls in states they had polled just 5 days ago. McCain picked up a couple points in Colorado and Virginia while Obama improved slightly in Florida and Ohio. The bigger story was Pennsylvania, which according to Rasmussen went from a 4 point Obama lead to an 8 point lead. Muhlenberg College has started a Pennsylvania tracking poll which parallels Rasmussen's findings, having Obama go from 4 to 7 points up in 4 days. The national tracking polls were close to unchanged, continuing the shift toward Obama.

The current prediction remains Obama 375, McCain 163 with New Hampshire as the state that puts Obama over the top and West Virginia as the closest state. Wisconsin and Michigan are teetering on the edge of Obama base state status. They will be kept in the list of competitive states until such time as new state polls confirm the national trend extending into those states. Tip of the hat to pollster.com for the compendium of links to polls.

Obama Base (202 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Illinois, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Wisconsin (Obama +10.4) 212 EV
Michigan (Obama +9.9) 229 EV
Minnesota (Obama +8.6) 239 EV
Pennsylvania (Obama +8.6) 260 EV


Muhlenberg 9/24-28 (9/23-27):
Obama 49 (48)
McCain 42 (42)
Muhlenberg 9/23-27 (9/22-26):
Obama 48 (47)
McCain 42 (42)
Muhlenberg 9/22-26 (9/21-25):
Obama 47 (47)
McCain 42 (43)
Rasmussen 9/28 (9/23):
Obama 50 (49)
McCain 42 (45)

Colorado (Obama +7.5) 269 EV


Rasmussen 9/28 (9/23):
Obama 49 (50)
McCain 48 (47)

New Hampshire (Obama +5.9) 273 EV
Nevada (Obama +5.9) 278 EV
Virginia (Obama +5.4) 291 EV


Rasmussen 9/28 (9/25):
Obama 50 (50)
McCain 47 (45)

Indiana (Obama +5.0) 302 EV
Ohio (Obama +4.4+4.0) 322 EV


Rasmussen 9/28 (9/23):
Obama 4947 (46)
McCain 48 (47)

Missouri (Obama +2.9) 333 EV
Florida (Obama +2.7) 360 EV


Survey USA 9/27-28 (9/16-17):
McCain 48 (51)
Obama 47 (45)
Rasmussen 9/28 (9/24):
Obama 47 (47)
McCain 47 (48)

North Carolina (Obama +2.5) 375 EV


Public Policy Polling 9/28-29 (9/17-19):
Obama 47 (46)
McCain 45 (46)

West Virginia (McCain +0.5) 163 EV
Montana (McCain +5.9) 158 EV

McCain Base (155 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample since the data is used multiple times. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

CA Pol Junkie :: 4:30 PM :: Comments (6) :: Digg It!