Daily Polling Report 9/30

by CA Pol Junkie

The national polls have stabilized with about a 6 point lead for Barack Obama. The state polls are still catching up. Survey USA polls from Indiana and Ohio show Obama making up ground there, even if he is still trailing in those polls. PPP gives Obama his biggest lead in Florida since the conventions while ARG provides some potential good news to McCain in Colorado, North Carolina, and Nevada. The Muhlenberg Pennsylvania tracking poll shows Obama continuing to expand his lead there.

The current prediction remains Obama 375, McCain 163 with New Hampshire as the state that puts Obama over the top and West Virginia as the closest state. Wisconsin and Michigan are teetering on the edge of Obama base state status. They will be kept in the list of competitive states until such time as new state polls confirm the national trend extending into those states.

Obama Base (202 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Illinois, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Wisconsin (Obama +10.5) 212 EV
Michigan (Obama +10.1) 229 EV
Pennsylvania (Obama +8.8) 250 EV

Muhlenberg 9/25-29 (9/24-27):
Obama 49 (49)
McCain 41 (42)

Minnesota (Obama +8.8) 260 EV
Colorado (Obama +7.6) 269 EV
New Hampshire (Obama +6.1) 273 EV
Virginia (Obama +4.2) 286 EV

ARG 9/27-29 (9/17-20):
McCain 49 (48)
Obama 46 (46)

Ohio (Obama +3.4) 306 EV

Survey USA 9/28-29 (9/12-14):
McCain 49 (49)
Obama 48 (45)

Missouri (Obama +3.1) 317 EV
Florida (Obama +2.9) 344 EV

Public Policy Polling 9/27-28 (9/6-7):
Obama 49 (45)
McCain 46 (50)

Nevada (Obama +2.8) 349 EV

ARG 9/27-29 (9/12-14):
McCain 49 (49)
Obama 47 (46)

Indiana (Obama +1.8) 360 EV

Survey USA 9/28-29 (8/16-18):
McCain 48 (50)
Obama 45 (44)

North Carolina (Obama +1.6) 375 EV

ARG 9/27-29 (9/13-16):
McCain 49 (52)
Obama 46 (41)

West Virginia (McCain +0.4) 163 EV
Montana (McCain +5.8) 158 EV

McCain Base (155 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.