Daily Polling Report 10/1

by CA Pol Junkie

Oh my, do we have some polly goodness today! A fleet of polls out today from CNN/Time, Insider Advantage, and Quinnipiac look good for Obama and the magic predictive spreadsheet. The spreadsheet shifts state polls based on the change in national polls. We have multiple national polls every day, but it can take a week or two to get multiple state level polls out to confirm a national trend. The magic spreadsheet has to go out on a limb with its predictions while we wait for the state polls.

Florida is a dramatic example of this effect. Obama has gained about 4 points in the national tracking polls in the last week. During that time, Obama's margin in the Florida polls has been -1, 1, -1, 0, 3, 6, 8, 4, and 3 points. Obama is now getting very strong poll results from Virginia as well. Minnesota hadn't been polled in over a week when it was too close for comfort, but the first poll after Obama's national gain shows him up 11 there. State polls are now catching up to the spreadsheet's prediction that Obama is ahead in Missouri and Nevada. Although Quinnipiac has been an Obama-friendly outlier in Ohio, other polls are now showing Obama taking the lead there as well.

The current prediction remains Obama 375, McCain 163 with New Hampshire as the state that puts Obama over the top and North Carolina as the closest state.

Obama Base (202 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Illinois, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Wisconsin (Obama +9.9) 212 EV
Michigan (Obama +9.4) 229 EV
Minnesota (Obama +9.0) 239 EV

CNN/Time 9/28-30 (8/31-9/2):
Obama 54 (53)
McCain 43 (41)

Pennsylvania (Obama +8.8) 260 EV

Muhlenberg 9/26-30 (9/25-29):
Obama 48 (49)
McCain 41 (41)
Franklin & Marshall 9/23-28 (8/4-10):
Obama 48 (46)
McCain 43 (41)
Quinnipiac 9/22-26 (9/5-9):
Obama 49 (48)
McCain 43 (45)
Quinnipiac 9/27-29 (9/22-26):
Obama 54 (49)
McCain 39 (43)

Colorado (Obama +7.0) 269 EV
New Hampshire (Obama +5.4) 273 EV
Virginia (Obama +4.4) 286 EV

Insider Advantage 9/29 (9/17):
Obama 51 (46)
McCain 45 (48)
CNN/Time 9/28-30 (9/7-9):
Obama 53 (46)
McCain 44 (50)

Ohio (Obama +3.7) 306 EV

Insider Advantage 9/29 (9/22):
Obama 47 (46)
McCain 45 (46)
Quinnipiac 9/22-26 (9/5-9):
Obama 49 (49)
McCain 42 (44)
Quinnipiac 9/27-29 (9/22-26):
Obama 50 (49)
McCain 42 (42)

Florida (Obama +3.4) 333 EV

Quinnipiac 9/22-26 (9/5-9):
Obama 49 (43)
McCain 43 (50)
Quinnipiac 9/27-29 (9/22-26):
Obama 51 (49)
McCain 43 (43)
CNN/Time 9/28-30 (9/14-16):
Obama 51 (48)
McCain 47 (48)
Insider Advantage 9/30 (9/10):
Obama 49 (42)
McCain 46 (50)
Suffolk 9/27-30:
Obama 46
McCain 42

Nevada (Obama +2.1) 338 EV

CNN/Time 9/28-30 (8/24-26):
Obama 51 (49)
McCain 47 (44)
Insider Advantage 9/30 (9/10):
Obama 48 (45)
McCain 47 (46)

Missouri (Obama +1.7) 349 EV

CNN/Time 9/28-30 (9/7-9):
Obama 49 (45)
McCain 48 (50)

Indiana (Obama +1.1) 360 EV
North Carolina (Obama +0.9) 375 EV
West Virginia (McCain +1.0) 163 EV
Montana (McCain +6.4) 158 EV

McCain Base (155 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.