Thursday :: Oct 2, 2008

Daily Polling Report 10/2

by CA Pol Junkie

It has been a quiet but happy day for Obama supporters in the polls today. Yesterday's report of an 11 point Obama lead in Minnesota was followed up by polls today giving Obama leads of 9 points in Wisconsin and 10 points in Michigan. Since McCain is giving up in Michigan after today that state will join Obama's base in this polling report. There were more Obama-friendly polls out of North Carolina and Ohio while Mason-Dixon claims that McCain is ahead by 3 in Virginia.

The current prediction remains Obama 375, McCain 163 with New Hampshire as the state that puts Obama over the top and Indiana as the closest state. States are generally put into each candidates' base if they reach a 10 point margin in the magic spreadsheet as confirmed by polls. They would only rejoin the competitive list if polls confirm the spreadsheet poll average with a margin under 5 points. North Dakota and Georgia are the only McCain base states currently at risk of becoming competitive. The latter is reporting very heavy African-American early voting, so we'll keep an eye on it.

Obama Base (202 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Illinois, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Wisconsin (Obama +10.3) 212 EV

Strategic Vision 9/22-26 (9/5-7):
Obama 49 (46)
McCain 40 (43)

Michigan (Obama +9.4) 229 EV

Public Policy Polling 9/29-10/1 (9/6-7):
Obama 51 (47)
McCain 41 (46)

Minnesota (Obama +8.8) 239 EV
Pennsylvania (Obama +8.7) 260 EV

Muhlenberg 9/27-10/1 (9/26-30):
Obama 50 (48)
McCain 41 (41)

Colorado (Obama +6.6) 269 EV

Ciruli 9/23-24:
Obama 44
McCain 43

New Hampshire (Obama +5.3) 273 EV
Ohio (Obama +3.8) 293 EV

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 9/29-10/1:
Obama 49
McCain 43

Virginia (Obama +3.3) 306 EV

Mason-Dixon 9/29-10/1 (9/17-22):
McCain 48 (47)
Obama 45 (44)

Florida (Obama +3.2) 333 EV
Nevada (Obama +1.9) 338 EV
Missouri (Obama +1.5) 349 EV
North Carolina (Obama +1.3) 364 EV

Rasmussen 10/1 (9/23):
Obama 50 (49)
McCain 47 (47)

Indiana (Obama +0.2) 375 EV

Research 2000 9/29-30 (4/23-24):
McCain 46 (51)
Obama 45 (43)

West Virginia (McCain +1.2) 163 EV
Montana (McCain +6.9) 158 EV

Rasmussen 10/1 (9/8):
McCain 52 (53)
Obama 44 (42)

McCain Base (155 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

CA Pol Junkie :: 3:03 PM :: Comments (1) :: Digg It!