Monday :: Oct 6, 2008

Daily Polling Report 10/6

by CA Pol Junkie

Despite the profound illogic of anyone voting for John McCain, it seems like Barack Obama's poll numbers shouldn't be able to defy gravity forever and the race will tighten. It's sure not happening yet, though. We have two (!) jaw-dropping polls out today showing Obama ahead by double-digits in Virginia. CNN/Time had Obama up by 9 there a week ago. Rasmussen today has Obama up by only 2 in Virginia, however. Mason-Dixon's last Virginia poll showing a 3-point McCain lead looks more like an outlier now. The only other bad news for Obama supporters is a Rasmussen poll showing McCain still ahead by 1 in Ohio.

Today we got the third poll in a row with a double-digit Obama lead in New Hampshire. PPP stakes Obama to a 6 point lead in North Carolina, his biggest lead in any poll from that state. Rasmussen spots Obama with a 3-point lead in Missouri and healthy leads of 7 points in Florida and 6 in Colorado. 5 recent polls in Colorado had put that state very close. The ho-hum polls of the day show Obama ahead in Pennsylvania by 11 points and ahead in Ohio by 6 points.

The current prediction remains Obama 380, McCain 158 with Colorado as the state that puts Obama over the top and West Virginia as the closest state.

Obama Base (229 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Minnesota (Obama +10.6) 239 EV
Pennsylvania (Obama +10.5) 260 EV

Muhlenberg 10/1-5 (9/30-10/4):
Obama 49 (50)
McCain 38 (40)

New Hampshire (Obama +10.0) 264 EV

Survey USA 10/4-5 (2/26-28):
Obama 53 (46)
McCain 40 (44)

Colorado (Obama +7.0) 273 EV

Rasmussen 10/5 (9/28):
Obama 51 (49)
McCain 45 (48)

Virginia (Obama +6.2) 286 EV

Suffolk 10/3-5 (9/30-10/4):
Obama 51
McCain 39
Survey USA 10/4-5 (9/19-21):
Obama 53 (51)
McCain 43 (45)
Rasmussen 10/5 (9/28):
Obama 50 (50)
McCain 48 (47)

Florida (Obama +5.2) 313 EV

Rasmussen 10/5 (9/28):
Obama 52 (47)
McCain 45 (47)

Ohio (Obama +4.8) 333 EV

GQR/Democracy Corps 10/4-5:
Obama 49
McCain 43
Rasmussen 10/5 (9/28):
Obama 47 (47)
McCain 48 (48)

Nevada (Obama +4.0) 338 EV
North Carolina (Obama +3.4) 353 EV

Public Policy Polling 10/4-5 (9/28-29):
Obama 50 (47)
McCain 44 (45)

Missouri (Obama +3.3) 364 EV

Rasmussen 10/5 (9/11):
Obama 50 (46)
McCain 47 (51)

Indiana (Obama +1.8) 375 EV
West Virginia (Obama +0.5) 380 EV
Montana (McCain +5.3) 158 EV

McCain Base (155 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

CA Pol Junkie :: 3:27 PM :: Comments (19) :: Digg It!