Tuesday :: Oct 7, 2008

Daily Polling Report 10/7


by CA Pol Junkie

John McCain actually got some mildly good news from the CNN/Time series of polls. They gave him a 5 point lead in Indiana and have the race all tied up in North Carolina. On the other hand, a Research 2000 poll shows a dead heat in Indiana while New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania are heading out of McCain's reach. Surveys from Florida, Nevada and Colorado pretty much follow their states' respective poll averages.

The current prediction remains Obama 380, McCain 158 with Colorado as the state that puts Obama over the top and Indiana as the closest state. Everyone say goodbye to New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Minnesota which will be leaving the competitive list after today to hang out in Obama's base. Don't cry, though, as our old friend North Dakota is back. Obama pulled resources from there weeks ago and there hasn't been any recent polling, but the magic spreadsheet thinks it's very competitive anyway. Georgia and Arkansas would be the next states to leave McCain's base if Obama is able to maintain his steady rise in the polls - the spreadsheet has McCain leading by 5-6 points in each state.

Obama Base (229 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Pennsylvania (Obama +11.7) 250 EV


Muhlenberg 10/2-6 (10/1-5):
Obama 48 (49)
McCain 38 (38)
Survey USA 10/5-6 (9/23-24):
Obama 55 (50)
McCain 40 (44)
Rasmussen 10/6:
Obama 54
McCain 41

Minnesota (Obama +11.1) 260 EV


Minnesota Public Radio 9/29,10/1 (8/7-17):
Obama 47 (48)
McCain 43 (38)
Minnesota Public Radio 10/3-10/5 (9/29,10/1):
Obama 54 (47)
McCain 40 (43)

New Hampshire (Obama +10.1) 264 EV


CNN/Time 10/3-10/6 (9/7-9):
Obama 53 (51)
McCain 45 (45)

Colorado (Obama +7.2) 273 EV


Insider Advantage 10/6 (9/23):
Obama 51 (51)
McCain 45 (40)

Virginia (Obama +6.7) 286 EV
Ohio (Obama +5.4) 306 EV


ABC News/Washington Post 10/3-5:
Obama 51
McCain 45
CNN/Time 10/3-6 (9/13-14):
Obama 50 (49)
McCain 47 (47)
Public Policy Polling 10/4-5 (9/14-16):
Obama 49 (44)
McCain 43 (48)

Florida (Obama +5.3) 333 EV


Mason-Dixon 10/4-10/6 (9/16-18):
Obama 48 (47)
McCain 46 (45)

Nevada (Obama +4.6) 338 EV


Research 2000 10/3-6 (8/18-20):
Obama 50 (44)
McCain 43 (43)
Insider Advantage 10/6 (9/30):
Obama 49 (48)
McCain 47 (47)

Missouri (Obama +3.8) 349 EV
North Carolina (Obama +3.3) 364 EV


CNN/Time 10/3-10/6 (9/14-16):
Obama 49 (47)
McCain 49 (48)

West Virginia (Obama +1.0) 369 EV
Indiana (Obama +0.3) 380 EV


Research 2000 9/29-10/3 (9/28-30):
Obama 46 (45)
McCain 46 (46)
CNN/Time 10/3-10/6 (9/14-16):
McCain 51 (51)
Obama 46 (45)

North Dakota (McCain +2.7) 158 EV
Montana (McCain +4.8) 155 EV

McCain Base (152 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

CA Pol Junkie :: 2:59 PM :: Comments (9) :: Digg It!