Daily Polling Report 10/8
by CA Pol Junkie
Last night wasn't a good night to be surveying voters, so the only new state poll in today's update is from Survey USA showing John McCain ahead by 3 points in North Carolina. In their write-up, they mentioned the 800 pound gorilla of Southern politics this year:
The contest today stands at McCain 49%, Obama 46%, if black turnout is 20% on Election Day, as SurveyUSA expects and as SurveyUSA herein reports. However, if black turnout increases by 10%, to 22% of the electorate, the world looks different.
If African-Americans turn out to vote disproportionately, the political calculations in the South are turned on their head. If that happens, Barack Obama will win Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida (any one of which would assure John McCain's defeat). It would also mean saying good-bye to Republican Senators Dole (NC), Chambliss (GA), and Wicker (MS). While the strongly disproportionate early voting by African-Americans in Georgia is a good sign, we won't know until election night how it plays out among all the voters.
The current prediction remains Obama 380, McCain 158 with Colorado as the state that puts Obama over the top and Indiana as the closest state. The tracking poll average used by the magic spreadsheet (Rasmussen and Gallup) increased yet again today, so all the unpolled states have shifted half a point bluer in this update.
Obama Base (264 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine
Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:
Colorado (Obama +7.7) 273 EV
Virginia (Obama +7.2) 286 EV
Ohio (Obama +5.9) 306 EV
Florida (Obama +5.8) 333 EV
Nevada (Obama +5.1) 338 EV
Missouri (Obama +4.3) 349 EV
North Carolina (Obama +2.9) 364 EV
Survey USA 10/5-6 (9/6-8):
McCain 49 (58)
Obama 46 (38)
West Virginia (Obama +1.5) 369 EV
Indiana (Obama +0.8) 380 EV
North Dakota (McCain +2.2) 158 EV
Montana (McCain +4.3) 155 EV
McCain Base (152 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina
The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.