Thursday :: Oct 9, 2008

Daily Polling Report 10/9

by CA Pol Junkie

Our favorite random pollster ARG came out with seven new state polls today including four from competitive states. Although ARG polls tend to swing wildly and be poorly correlated to other polls, the shocker was their claim that Obama is ahead by 8 in West Virginia. The magic spreadsheet had been predicting West Virginia to be narrowly for Obama thanks to the swing in the national polls over the last few weeks, but 8 points is surprising. Of course, ARG polls are largely for fun and not for taking too seriously. Neither in our reality nor any altnerate reality will Obama will win West Virginia by 8 points while only winning Minnesota by 1 point. Still, ARG polls alot of states which don't get much attention and hopefully their startling West Virginia poll will inspire more reliable polling there.

Other surveys from Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina agreed with the polling consensus that Obama is ahead in each state. ARG's effort from infrequently surveyed Montana agreed closely with the spreadsheet's estimate of a modest McCain lead. ARG's Missouri poll giving McCain a 3 point lead was against the recent trends, however.

The current prediction is now Obama 369, McCain 169 with Colorado as the state that puts Obama over the top and Indiana as the closest state. Indiana flips back over to McCain thanks to a Rasmussen poll claiming that Indiana is bucking the national trend and now favors McCain by 7 points. West Virginia leaps upward among the Democratic states since there the new ARG poll gets a high weight in the magic spreadsheet's calculations without any other recent polls to work with.

Obama Base (264 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Colorado (Obama +7.7) 273 EV
Virginia (Obama +7.3) 286 EV

Public Policy Polling 10/6-7 (9/13-14):
Obama 51 (48)
McCain 43 (46)

West Virginia (Obama +5.8) 291 EV

ARG 10/4-8 (9/14-16):
Obama 50 (45)
McCain 42 (49)

Ohio (Obama +5.7) 311 EV

ARG 10/4-7 (9/10-13):
Obama 48 (44)
McCain 45 (50)

Florida (Obama +5.4) 338 EV

Rasmussen 10/8 (10/5):
Obama 50 (52)
McCain 47 (45)

Nevada (Obama +5.1) 343 EV
North Carolina (Obama +2.9) 358 EV

Rasmussen 10/8 (9/30):
Obama 49 (50)
McCain 48 (47)
Civitas 10/5-8 (9/17-20):
Obama 48 (45)
McCain 43 (45)

Missouri (Obama +2.5) 369 EV

ARG 10/4-6 (9/11-15):
McCain 49 (50)
Obama 46 (45)

Indiana (McCain +1.3) 169 EV

Rasmussen 10/8 (9/17-18):
McCain 50 (49)
Obama 43 (47)

North Dakota (McCain +2.2) 158 EV
Montana (McCain +4.6) 155 EV

ARG 10/6-8 (9/7-9):
McCain 50 (49)
Obama 45 (47)

McCain Base (152 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

CA Pol Junkie :: 3:21 PM :: Comments (18) :: Digg It!