Friday :: Oct 10, 2008

Daily Polling Report 10/10

by CA Pol Junkie

I have a few guilty pleasures in life. As a Democrat and political junkie, one of those pleasures is getting good news from a Republican poll. First, it is extra good news for the Democrat since partisan polls tend to make assumptions on turnout which skew the poll slightly in their direction. My evil side (Bwahaha!) can't help but think about the folks at Strategic Vision as they release their poll, and take glee in knowing that they'd probably rather eat their own livers than have Obama ahead by 8 in Florida.

The current prediction remains Obama 369, McCain 169 with Colorado as the state that puts Obama over the top and Indiana as the closest state. Have a good weekend everybody - the Daily Polling Report will be back... 2 days from now.

Obama Base (264 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Colorado (Obama +7.4) 273 EV
Virginia (Obama +7.0) 286 EV
West Virginia (Obama +5.4) 291 EV
Florida (Obama +5.3) 318 EV

Strategic Vision 10/6-8 (9/21-23):
Obama 52 (45)
McCain 44 (48)
Research 2000 10/6-8 (9/15-18):
Obama 49 (45)
McCain 44 (46)

Ohio (Obama +5.0) 338 EV

Strategic Vision 10/6-8 (9/7-9):
Obama 48 (44)
McCain 46 (48)
Insider Advantage 10/9 (9/29):
Obama 49 (47)
McCain 44 (45)

Nevada (Obama +4.7) 343 EV
North Carolina (Obama +2.6) 358 EV

WSOC-TV 10/6-7:
McCain 48
Obama 46

Missouri (Obama +2.1) 349 EV
Indiana (McCain +1.6) 169 EV
North Dakota (McCain +2.6) 158 EV
Montana (McCain +5.0) 155 EV

McCain Base (152 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

CA Pol Junkie :: 3:26 PM :: Comments (5) :: Digg It!