Sunday :: Oct 12, 2008

Daily Polling Report 10/12

by CA Pol Junkie

Election day is 23 days away, but for alot of Americans it's already over. About one third of voters will have already voted by election day. Missouri and Virginia are the only competitive states which do not allow early or absentee voting without an excuse. As the voter registration deadline passes in each state, the campaigns switch into Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) mode.

Ideally, targeted voters have already been contacted by now, as early contact is more effective than later contact. Barack Obama demonstrated one reason for this today when he knocked on some doors in Toledo Ohio. One of the voters he met and talked with for a few minutes had already voted early.

There were just three new polls over the weekend. PPP found Obama to be ahead by 10 in Colorado, only the second time a pollster has given him a double-digit lead there. The polls from Nevada and Ohio pulled his poll average down in each state, but they still weren't all bad news. Both pollsters have been relatively friendly toward McCain but showed movement toward Obama relative to the pollsters' previous releases.

The current prediction remains Obama 369, McCain 169 with Colorado as the state that puts Obama over the top and Missouri as the closest state. The unpolled states slipped a point toward McCain thanks to McCain gaining over the last 3 days in the ever fluctuating Gallup poll. Rasmussen has been much more stable: in the last 17 days, Obama has always been in the 50-52 range while McCain has been stuck between 44 and 45 percent.

Colorado (Obama +7.2) 273 EV

Public Policy Polling 10/8-10 (9/20-21):
Obama 52 (51)
McCain 42 (44)

Virginia (Obama +6.3) 286 EV
West Virginia (Obama +4.8) 291 EV
Florida (Obama +4.6) 318 EV
Ohio (Obama +3.8) 338 EV

University of Cincinnati 10/4-8 (9/12-16):
McCain 48 (48)
Obama 46 (42)

Nevada (Obama +3.4) 343 EV

Mason-Dixon 10/8-10 (8/13-15):
Obama 47 (41)
McCain 45 (47)

North Carolina (Obama +1.9) 358 EV
Missouri (Obama +1.5) 369 EV
Indiana (McCain +2.3) 169 EV
North Dakota (McCain +3.2) 158 EV
Montana (McCain +5.6) 155 EV

McCain Base (152 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

CA Pol Junkie :: 5:05 PM :: Comments (6) :: Digg It!