Monday :: Oct 13, 2008

Daily Polling Report 10/13

by CA Pol Junkie

One of the central assumptions of the magic spreadsheet - that changes in national polls can be applied to state polls - was supported again today by the first poll out of North Dakota in almost a month. The spreadsheet was predicting North Dakota to be very close and sure enough today's poll release actually has Obama ahead by 2. According to the poll release, although Obama shifted paid staff out of the state, the offices stayed open and have been worked by volunteers.

The other head-turning poll today was Survey USA's Missouri poll showing Obama ahead by 8 there. Rasmussen's series of battleground state polls showed little change in each state from their surveys conducted a week ago. Survey USA's Georgia poll has Obama down by 8 points but with a whopping 18% of voters already having voted. Those who have voted favor Obama by 6 points, but the poll has Obama falling short of the 30% support among white voters needed to win the state.

The current prediction is now Obama 372, McCain 166 with Colorado as the state that puts Obama over the top and North Dakota as the closest state. North Dakota is now nominally blue by literally less than 100 votes thanks to the favorable poll and Obama's rebound in the Gallup national tracking poll. Florida and Missouri are now polling stronger than Ohio for Obama.

Obama Base (264 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Colorado (Obama +7.2) 273 EV
Virginia (Obama +5.9) 286 EV

Rasmussen 10/12 (10/5):
Obama 50 (50)
McCain 47 (4847)

Florida (Obama +4.8) 313 EV

Rasmussen 10/12 (10/8):
Obama 51 (50)
McCain 46 (47)

West Virginia (Obama +4.8) 318 EV
Missouri (Obama +3.8) 329 EV

Survey USA 10/11-12 (9/23-24):
Obama 51 (46)
McCain 43 (48)
Rasmussen 10/12 (10/5):
Obama 50 (50)
McCain 47 (47)

Ohio (Obama +3.6) 349 EV

Marist 10/5-8 (9/11-15):
Obama 49 (47)
McCain 45 (45)
Rasmussen 10/12 (10/5):
Obama 49 (47)
McCain 47 (48)

Nevada (Obama +3.4) 354 EV
North Carolina (Obama +1.8) 369 EV

Rasmussen 10/12 (10/8):
Obama 48 (49)
McCain 48 (48)

North Dakota (Obama +0.0) 372 EV

Minnesota State Univ. 10/6-8:
Obama 45
McCain 43

Indiana (McCain +2.3) 166 EV
Montana (McCain +5.6) 155 EV

McCain Base (152 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

CA Pol Junkie :: 3:44 PM :: Comments (12) :: Digg It!