Daily Polling Report 10/14
by CA Pol Junkie
Today's polls reinforced the status quo in several states. While Quinnipiac reported a 9 point Obama lead in Colorado, it was balanced out by a 4 point Obama lead in the Suffolk poll. PPP showed Obama's lead being cut to 3 in North Carolina in the last week but had Obama ahead in Missouri. Probably the best polling news was the Survey USA poll of Ohio giving Obama a 5 point lead. Survey USA had been one of the last holdouts who hadn't shown an Obama lead there.
The Gallup tracking poll has initiated a bit of a self-indictment of their own methodology this week. In addition to the results among registered voters they had been reporting, they now have two versions of likely voter models. Model 1 is "traditional" (like they had always done it) which looks at motivation and past voting history to decide if someone is a likely voter. Model 2 is their "expanded" likely voter model which looks at motivation only. It looks like a realization that their old likely voter model won't work. The difference between their models is newly registered voters, of which there are record numbers this year. Normally, these voters aren't very reliable but they appear to be more engaged this year. According to Gallup, these voters are breaking almost 3:1 for Obama and will have a big impact if they turn out. Obama's ground operation is no doubt putting alot of effort into reaching these voters and making sure they vote.
The current prediction is back to Obama 369, McCain 169 with Colorado as the state that puts Obama over the top and North Dakota as the closest state. North Dakota flips narrowly back over to McCain.
Obama Base (264 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine
Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:
Colorado (Obama +6.7) 273 EV
Virginia (Obama +5.5) 286 EV
Florida (Obama +4.5) 313 EV
West Virginia (Obama +4.4) 318 EV
Ohio (Obama +3.5) 338 EV
Survey USA 10/12-13 (9/28-29):
Obama 50 (48)
McCain 45 (49)
Nevada (Obama +3.1) 343 EV
Missouri (Obama +3.1) 354 EV
Public Policy Polling 10/11-12 (8/13-17):
Obama 48 (40)
McCain 46 (50)
North Carolina (Obama +1.6) 369 EV
Public Policy Polling 10/11-12 (10/4-5):
Obama 49 (50)
McCain 46 (44)
North Dakota (McCain +0.3) 169 EV
Indiana (McCain +2.6) 166 EV
Montana (McCain +6.0) 155 EV
McCain Base (152 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina
The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.