Wednesday :: Oct 15, 2008

Daily Polling report 10/15

by CA Pol Junkie

The presidential race is very stable right now. Of 5 CNN/Time polls in competitive states, only one had moved as much as 2 points compared to their previous poll from 2-3 weeks ago. Two Insider Advantage polls showed 1 point shifts toward Obama. In Florida over the last week, 5 polls have given Obama a 4 or 5 point lead. Insider Advantage's North Carolina poll shifted to a 2 point Obama lead to agree with the polling consensus there. The most interesting poll of the day was Insider Advantage's first West Virginia poll, giving McCain a 2 point lead. Public Policy Polling lamented at how they wanted to conduct a survey there but couldn't figure out a reliable way to do it.

Early voting is very interesting to watch this year. In Georgia, the Secretary of State has daily updates on the numbers and demographics of who has already voted. By election day, more than 1/3 of voters may have already voted and they are disproportionately Obama supporters. Survey USA breaks out their results by who has already voted, and 538 summarizes the results in five states showing the early vote heavily slanted toward Obama in all cases. This is a symptom of the enthusiasm gap between the candidates and of Obama's superior ground game encouraging his supporters to vote early. This will only amplify Obama's organizational advantage on election day. He will have more volunteers getting fewer remaining supporters to the polls.

The current prediction is Obama 369, McCain 169 with Colorado as the state that puts Obama over the top and North Dakota as the closest state.

Obama Base (264 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Colorado (Obama +6.2) 273 EV

CNN/Time/Opinion Research 10/11-14 (9/21-23):
Obama 51 (51)
McCain 47 (47)

Virginia (Obama +6.1) 286 EV

CNN/Time/Opinion Research 10/11-14 (9/28-30):
Obama 53 (53)
McCain 43 (44)

Florida (Obama +4.3) 313 EV

Insider Advantage 10/13 (9/30):
Obama 48 (49)
McCain 44 (46)
Datamar 10/12-13:
Obama 47
McCain 42
CNN/Time/Opinion Research 10/11-14 (9/28-30):
Obama 51 (51)
McCain 46 (47)

Ohio (Obama +3.3) 333 EV
Nevada (Obama +2.8) 338 EV

Insider Advantage 10/13 (10/6):
Obama 49 (49)
McCain 46 (47)

Missouri (Obama +2.1) 349 EV

CNN/Time/Opinion Research 10/11-14 (9/28-30):
McCain 48 (48)
Obama 47 (49)

North Carolina (Obama +1.4) 364 EV

Insider Advantage 10/13 (8/19):
Obama 48 (43)
McCain 46 (45)

West Virginia (Obama +0.8) 369 EV

Insider Advantage 10/13 (10/6):
McCain 49
Obama 47

North Dakota (McCain +0.5) 169 EV
Indiana (McCain +2.8) 166 EV
Montana (McCain +6.1) 155 EV

McCain Base (152 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

CA Pol Junkie :: 3:57 PM :: Comments (4) :: Digg It!