Thursday :: Oct 16, 2008

Daily Polling Report 10/16

by CA Pol Junkie

With ample cash and ample leads in what were formerly competitive states, Barack Obama's campaign is considering moving some resources into North Dakota, Georgia, West Virginia, and Kentucky. Kentucky seems pretty far-fetched, but the rest might be better investments than the Kerry states since those are solid for Obama. A North Dakota poll commissioned by a union gives Obama a 3 point lead there. A Virginia poll was a dramatic improvement for Obama over the pollster's previous survey, but their new result is basically in line with the current poll average. Rasmussen polled Ohio and found 2 points of drift toward McCain since it polled there 3 days ago.

The current prediction is Obama 367, McCain 171 with Colorado as the state that puts Obama over the top and West Virginia as the closest state. North Dakota and West Virginia switched sides, the former because of a favorable poll for Obama and the latter because of McCain's improvement in the national tracking polls. Hopefully, last night's debate performance will win back for Obama the two points or so he has lost in the national polls in the last week.

Obama Base (264 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Colorado (Obama +5.4) 273 EV
Virginia (Obama +5.2) 286 EV

Christopher Newport Univ. 10/11-14 (9/10-14):
Obama 49.2 (39)
McCain 43.2 (48)

Florida (Obama +3.5) 313 EV
Ohio (Obama +2.2) 333 EV

Rasmussen 10/14 (10/11):
Obama 49 (49)
McCain 49 (47)

Nevada (Obama +2.0) 338 EV
Missouri (Obama +1.2) 349 EV
North Carolina (Obama +0.6) 364 EV
North Dakota (Obama +0.6) 367 EV

DFM Research 10/13-14 (8/23-27):
Obama 44 (43)
McCain 41 (40)

West Virginia (McCain +0.0) 171 EV
Indiana (McCain +2.8) 166 EV
Montana (McCain +6.1) 155 EV

McCain Base (152 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

CA Pol Junkie :: 3:07 PM :: Comments (24) :: Digg It!