Daily Polling Report 10/17
by CA Pol Junkie
The Survey USA poll from Florida giving McCain a 2 point lead would appear to be good news for him, except that it's not much changed from two weeks ago and Survey USA has had chronic problems polling in the South this year. They seem to think African-Americans will have a lower turnout rate than in 2004 and that only 75% will support Obama as opposed to the 86% support Kerry got. Ummm... riiiight. If the African-American demographic were corrected in the poll to merely match 2004 turnout and have 95% support for Obama, that would add about 6 points to the margin in favor of Obama and put the Survey USA poll in line with all the other polls from Florida.
The methodologically cautious Rasmussen poll makes waves today with a poll showing Obama ahead by 6 in Missouri. They also have results very similar to their previous polling in Colorado and Nevada giving Obama a mid-single digit lead in each state. Research 2000 is the third poll this week to show that North Dakota is very competitive. Since Obama has 264 electoral votes basically locked up, it's hard to come up with a scenario which would make North Dakota's 3 electoral votes pivotal. If Obama shifts resources into the state, take that as a sign that he is working not just on winning, but on a mandate.
The current prediction is Obama 364, McCain 174 with Colorado as the state that puts Obama over the top and North Carolina as the closest state. North Dakota wobbles back narrowly to McCain in today's update. The national tracking polls may have bottomed out - Rasmussen hinted that Obama did well in last night's sample and Gallup inched up a point for the first time in 5 days.
Obama Base (264 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine
Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:
Colorado (Obama +5.3) 273 EV
Rasmussen 10/16 (10/5):
Obama 52 (51)
McCain 45 (45)
Virginia (Obama +4.7) 286 EV
Florida (Obama +2.4) 313 EV
Nevada (Obama +2.4) 318 EV
Rasmussen 10/16 (10/2):
Obama 50 (51)
McCain 45 (47)
Missouri (Obama +1.8) 329 EV
Rasmussen 10/16 (10/12):
Obama 52 (50)
McCain 46 (47)
Ohio (Obama +1.7) 349 EV
North Carolina (Obama +0.1) 364 EV
North Dakota (McCain +0.4) 174 EV
Research 2000 10/14-15 (9/16-17):
Obama 45 (40)
McCain 45 (53)
West Virginia (McCain +0.5) 171 EV
Indiana (McCain +4.1) 166 EV
Montana (McCain +7.5) 155 EV
McCain Base (152 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina
The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.