Daily Polling Report 10/19
by CA Pol Junkie
The tide has turned back against John McCain in the national polls: Obama has gained 2 points in the Rasmussen and 3 points in the Gallup tracking polls. Although I am skeptical that many people will vote for Barack Obama because he has been endorsed by Colin Powell, what the eloquent and enthusiastic endorsement will do is give Obama a couple good days of press while adding some shame to the McCain campaign thanks to Powell's polite condemnation of his tactics. Anything that gives a couple news cycles to Obama is terrible news for McCain, who needs everything to go his way for the next 15 days.
John McCain does get good news from three polls, giving him a 1 point lead in Ohio and 6 and 8 point leads in West Virginia. There's been enough polling in West Virginia now so it looks like it will probably stay red this year. A new poll of Montana puts only 4 points between McCain and Obama, making it closer than it had appeared.
For those of you who like to follow early voting, there is now a compendium of statistics from early voting states here. Clark County (Las Vegas) Nevada is off to a fast start with 25,105 people voting on the first day. Obama needs to run up a lead in Clark County to make up for the rest of the state.
The current prediction is Obama 367, McCain 171 with Colorado as the state that puts Obama over the top and North Dakota as the closest state. Fickle North Dakota is back for Obama now that Obama is improving in the national tracking polls.
Obama Base (264 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine
Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:
Colorado (Obama +6.5) 273 EV
Virginia (Obama +5.9) 286 EV
Florida (Obama +3.6) 313 EV
Hamilton Campaigns 10/10-15:
Nevada (Obama +3.6) 318 EV
Missouri (Obama +3.0) 329 EV
Ohio (Obama +2.6) 349 EV
North Carolina (Obama +1.4) 364 EV
Research 2000 10/14-15 (9/8-10):
Obama 46 (38)
McCain 44 (55)
North Dakota (Obama +0.8) 367 EV
Indiana (McCain +2.9) 171 EV
West Virginia (McCain +3.1) 160 EV
Montana (McCain +4.5) 155 EV
Research 2000 10/15-16 (9/22-24):
McCain 49 (52)
Obama 45 (39)
McCain Base (152 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina
The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.