Monday :: Oct 20, 2008

Daily Polling Report 10/20

by CA Pol Junkie

Today we have The Battle of the Pollsters where they smack each other with competing statistics and remind us that the "margin of error" isn't even the most important error in public opinion surveying. In Missouri, Obama is either ahead by 5 or trailing by 1 depending on who you believe, while Ohio is even more divergent: Obama +9 or McCain +2. Obama got some friendly results in Virginia (+10 and +6) and North Carolina (+7 and +3). Today's only poll out of Florida has McCain ahead by a point according to Rasmussen, a 6 point swing toward McCain in the last week.

Early voting continues at a rapid pace, and is strongly favoring Democrats in Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada at least. In Nevada, where voter registration has been skewing Democratic since 2004, Democrats are running way ahead of the Clark County early vote margin at this point in 2004. Democrats are outnumbering Republicans 62%-23% after the first day of early voting. After 2 days of early voting, 45,658 have voted in Clark County. In Georgia, the early vote so far is 21% of the total 2004 vote and African-Americans are still voting in disproportionate numbers. In North Carolina, 56% of early voters are Democrats and 28% are African-American. A Georgia poll today puts McCain only 2-3 points ahead, so it has been added to the list of competitive states. Only a massive turnout of African-Americans could flip that state blue, but at the moment that is actually happening.

The current prediction is Obama 367, McCain 171. Virginia is now the state which puts Obama over 270 electoral votes while North Dakota is the closest state.

Obama Base (264 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Virginia (Obama +6.9) 277 EV

Rasmussen 10/19 (10/12):
Obama 54 (50)
McCain 44 (47)
Survey USA 10/18-19 (10/4-5):
Obama 51 (53)
McCain 45 (43)

Colorado (Obama +6.7) 286 EV

Rasmussen 10/19 (10/16):
Obama 51 (52)
McCain 46 (45)

Nevada (Obama +4.3) 291 EV
Florida (Obama +3.6) 318 EV

Rasmussen 10/19 (10/12):
McCain 49 (46)
Obama 48 (51)

Missouri (Obama +3.2) 329 EV

Rasmussen 10/19 (10/15):
Obama 49 (52)
McCain 44 (46)
Suffolk 10/16-19:
McCain 45
Obama 44

Ohio (Obama +3.3) 349 EV

Rasmussen 10/19 (10/14):
McCain 49 (49)
Obama 47 (49)
Suffolk 10/16-19 (9/10-13):
Obama 51 (42)
McCain 42 (46)

North Carolina (Obama +2.8) 364 EV

Rasmussen 10/19 (10/12):
Obama 51 (48)
McCain 48 (48)
Public Policy Polling 10/18-19 (10/11-12):
Obama 51 (49)
McCain 44 (46)

North Dakota (Obama +1.4) 367 EV
Indiana (McCain +2.3) 166 EV
West Virginia (McCain +2.4) 171 EV
Montana (McCain +3.8) 155 EV
Georgia (McCain +5.7) 152 EV

Democracy Corps 10/16-19:
McCain 48
Obama 45

McCain Base (137 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

CA Pol Junkie :: 3:53 PM :: Comments (14) :: Digg It!