Tuesday :: Oct 21, 2008

Daily Polling Report 10/21


by CA Pol Junkie

Many polls were released today, and the consensus among them is that McCain has gained about a point since the last time the polls were conducted 1-2 weeks ago. That is pretty much in line with the change in the national tracking polls, although they are now apparently moving back toward Obama. Survey USA's cronic polling problems in the South subsided a little with their latest North Carolina poll. They were the last pollster to give McCain a lead there 2 weeks ago, but now they show the state tied up. They still underestimate Obama's support among African-Americans, which if corrected gives Obama a margin of 2-4 points. The clear bright spot of the day for Obama is PPP's first Indiana poll pegging him with a 2 point lead.

Survey USA and Civitas give the breakouts in their North Carolina polls of who has already voted. Of the 13% who have already voted, Obama's lead is 59-36 (Survey USA) or 64-32 (Civitas). From the early voting demographics, that would mean about half the early white voters are Obama supporters. In Georgia, the number of early voters per day has gone up for the last four days with sustained disproportionate African-American voting. Daily early voting totals are also increasing in Clark County (Las Vegas) Nevada. The early voting statistics is excellent news for the Obama campaign, as it is clear that his voters are far more motivated than McCain's. It's hard to tell if the voters are self-motivated or being pushed by the Obama GOTV operation, but either way it's more votes in the bank and fewer to bring in on November 4th.

The current prediction is Obama 367, McCain 171. Virginia is the state which puts Obama over 270 electoral votes while Indiana is the closest state.

Obama Base (264 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Virginia (Obama +7.2) 277 EV
Colorado (Obama +6.7) 286 EV


Insider Advantage 10/20 (10/6):
Obama 51 (51)
McCain 46 (45)

Florida (Obama +3.8) 313 EV


Public Policy Polling 10/16-19 (9/27-28):
Obama 48 (49)
McCain 47 (46)

Ohio (Obama +3.7) 333 EV
Missouri (Obama +3.5) 344 EV
Nevada (Obama +3.4) 349 EV


Insider Advantage 10/20 (9/27-28):
Obama 47 (49)
McCain 47 (46)

North Carolina (Obama +2.7) 364 EV


Civitas 10/18-20 (10/6-8):
Obama 48 (48)
McCain 45 (43)
Survey USA 10/18-20 (10/5-6):
Obama 47 (46)
McCain 47 (49)
Insider Advantage 10/20 (10/13):
Obama 49 (48)
McCain 48 (46)

North Dakota (Obama +1.8) 367 EV
Indiana (McCain +0.1) 171 EV


Public Policy Polling 10/18-19:
Obama 48
McCain 46

Montana (McCain +3.5) 160 EV
West Virginia (McCain +4.0) 157 EV


Rasmussen 10/20 (9/24):
McCain 52 (50)
Obama 43 (42)

Georgia (McCain +5.3) 152 EV

McCain Base (137 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

CA Pol Junkie :: 3:15 PM :: Comments (24) :: Digg It!